Let’s rediscover ourselves and…

…find those flippin’ shooting boots!

First of all…

…the Southampton ‘mirror’

I don’t know about you, the reader, but I think our victory in the F.A. Cup against Southampton on Sunday 20^th March summed up our entire season in some ways.

·         I thought the first 10 we went ‘toe to toe’ with a side who were ‘up for it’ and had the backing of ‘pumped up’, expectant home fans.

·         I thought we then stepped up and largely dominated from minute 11 to around 30 minutes but, for some strange reason, our passing went off again; we lost a little bit of focus in some areas and The Saint gained the initiative, which resulted in an own goal equaliser. What IS that switch that we appear to have found recently, which we seemingly turn on & off periodically in some games? One ex-Southampton Manager said, at half time, that City, all of a sudden, “…went casual”. Coincidentally, that’s something I’ve discussed very recently with a fellow Blue who used that very same phrase when describing some of our performances since the end of January.

·         I only got to listen to the second half on our car radio due to a previously-planned family get-together which clashed with our rearranged, weekend fixture but it was still clear that we came out after the break refocused and, as the minutes ticked by, our passing & pressing improved. Chuck in a couple of substitutions – two players [Foden & Mahrez] I felt should have been on from the start – and we were just too much for the side who had previously held us to two draws earlier on in the season. According to the BBC, Kevin De Bruyne admitted post-match that we weren’t up to our usual standard and I think that could be said of quite a few of our recent games; even those we have gone on to win.

I just feel similar about our season so far – a season where, as I begin to prep this piece on 21^st March, we sit top of the league by a point; are in the semi-finals of the F.A. Cup and the quarter finals of the Champions League. Huh…not bad, hey?!

Now, I don’t know whether it’s because I get the feeling that high expectations have FINALLY, after many recent years of improving quality and trophy winning, caught up with me but I’ve found ‘blips’ in our season really frustrating at times. Of course, every team has ‘em…but am I the only City fan who thinks that at least half of them were avoidable?

After our opening day defeat away at Spurs, which Pep has repeatedly put down to-us-having so many ‘first choice’ players not ready to play (although they were on the bench that Sunday), we EXPLODED into action! 5-0 v Norwich, 5-0 v Arsenal; a really tough, battling, high-energy 0-1 away victory at Leicester, a 6-3-win v RB Leipzig, 6-1 v Wycombe in the League Cup was followed by a 0-1 away win in the league against Chelsea! These were all part of a terrific run, where we later shared the points away at Liverpool; knocked in another 5 in the Champions League against Club Bruges before banging in 4 away in the Premier League against Brighton.

 

I think THIS is the reason that, when the team doesn’t do what they are clearly capable of, it becomes more than just ‘head scratching’ for me and so many other City fans, I’ve noticed recently also.

 

After that Brighton win, we went to West Ham in the League Cup and so many of our attacking players appeared ‘off colour’ and were misfiring that night. A whopping 25 shots and just 7 heading in before being blocked / saved. Put another way, only around 1 in 4 were on target. Next up was Palace at home in the league. Result? A 0-2 home defeat. We were restricted to just 14 shots that day but, once again, just 3 on target saw a mere 1 in 5 shots heading in against The Eagles.

2 back-to-back games, 190 minutes played in total; no goals scored before the final whistle blew…our own foot successfully shot by ourselves. It was the first sign that we had a wobbly wheel that needed looking at, which came in the form of misfiring but also some wayward passing too. Desire, however, could never be questioned.

 

We then shrugged it off and went on a TERRIFIC run throughout November, December and most of January until…guess who? Southampton away. This was a side who had held us to a 0-0’er at home back in September. In that early season game, we had 16 shots and how many of ‘em was on target? Just yer 1. The reverse fixture at their ground in January was so similar, in some ways; with 74% possession, 20 shots but only 5 on target. Put both Southampton league fixtures together and that’s 36 shots but just 6 on target! I mean…wow.

That Southampton away game was the start of a run of form that looks like this up to date: D W W W W L W W W D D W, with the underlined results being cup games. Still not bad at all, despite some more blips.

 

I’m not suggesting for one second that we’re not allowed negative results…and I’m certainly not turning into a Manyoo fan of old who believes that we have a divine right to win every game and how DARE the opposition get the better of us!

 

No…but it’s the MANNER of those shared points or, worse, defeats.

In that run of wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat that I’ve highlighted in our last 11 outings, that defeat at home to Spurs was a travesty for me. Everyone with an interest in that game just KNEW that we had to be on our guard against Spurs’ breakaways and the threatening counter-attacking players they had / have in their side. They were a team who weren’t playing well at all at the time; who were inconsistent, to say the very least; had a striker who couldn’t score and a very leaky defence. We breached them twice, in fact, but…TA-DAAAA! 3 break-aways and a hattrick for struggling Harry. Welcome back to old, ‘typical City’. Our defence, particularly our wing-backs, pressed SO high that day that we were ‘sucked in’ by the visitors and ‘sucker punched’.

Fast forward 4 & 5 games ahead and we go a full 190 minutes against Sporting CP (okay the 2-legged fixture was ‘done & dusted’) & Crystal Palace without scoring a single goal once again. It was Groundhog Day. And here it is again folks…33 shots in those two games and just 8 on target. Can anyone else hear that squeaky wheel again?

When I listened to Phil Foden thundering in a brilliant shot at St. Mary’s, my first reaction was to think, THAT’S what we’ve been missing at key times and in certain games this season! Well, we have Liverpool grabbing hold of the back of our shirts in the league and, no disrespect to the other sides who remain in both the F.A Cup & Champions League, but we go ‘head-to-head’ against the Merseysiders in the F.A. Cup semi-final and, all being well for us, we could face ‘em final of the Champions League, I think I’m right in sayin’. What a challenging prospect!

Whether that’s the case or not - and WHOEVER we face and in whatever competition - I just hope that the management / coaching team at Manchester City keep showing the squad that Foden v Southampton goal over and over again. That…and the lads tighten up their passing and improve their final-ball decision-making too.

Having started to follow Manchester City regularly since the mid-1980s, I still consider myself to be a very much grounded Blue. However, I have to admit that this is the first season, as I say, where new-found expectation levels have finally caught up with me. I won’t let them sweep me away to-becoming an arrogant fan of a successful football club – and I will ALWAYS give the opposition the credit they deserve - but I can’t say that I won’t feel more than slightly irritated whenever we fail to do what we are very much capable of doing in most games.

v Burnley

Turf Moor

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game: 7/11).

Fluid 4-1-5-0 / 4-6-0 / 4-3-3:

______________________________________________

 

Grealish_________________________________Mahrez

_____________________Foden____________________

_________De Bruyne______________Silva__________

 

______________________Rodri____________________

Cancelo__________________________________Walker

 

___________Laporte_____________Stones__________

 

 

_____________________Ederson__________________

Subs: Steffen, Zinchenko, Ake, Mbete, Fernandinho, Gundogan, Sterling, McAtee, Jesus.

Ederson has the gloves.

A back-4 of Joao, Aymeric, John, who it seems is fine after being withdrawn as a precaution whilst on international duty after “feeling something” & Kyle.

Rodders is ‘the holder’ / link-up midfielder and ahead on the Spaniard is a fluid, interchangeable attacking 5 of Jack, Kevin, Phil, Bernardo & Riyad.

Zack wasn’t mentioned in the pre-match press conference injury report and, so, I assume he is past both his recent back and shoulder issues. He gets the reserve stopper job. Oleksandr, Nathan & Luke are the back-up defenders on the side; Fernandinho, Ilkay, Raheem, James & Gabriel are the midfield / wing / attacking options in ‘the 9’.

Still 3 subs from 9 allowed in the Premier League at the moment but that is changing to 5 from next season, in order to bring us in line with teams in Europe. Also, for that very reason, the summer transfer window will now open on 10^th June rather than 1^st July and will still close early September.

Notable absences:

-       Ruben Dias – It would appear that a recent report stating that Ruben was seen back in training early from a 4-to-6-week estimated layoff following a hamstring injury were well wide of the mark. Our manager has now confirmed that he will not only miss today’s match but also our midweek, 1^st-leg clash with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League as well as our league clash with Liverpool the following Sunday.

-       Cole Palmer – It seems that the foot injury Cole sustained almost 3 months ago, where he appeared to-have-almost recovered according to reports a few weeks ago, now appears more problematic. According to Pep, the England Under-21 attacker is able to train for 2 or 3 days but that-then leaves the Manchester-born 19-year-old in pain to the point where he has to rest for a couple of days. Of course, City’s medical staff are monitoring the situation but surgery is an option they are considering. It sounds to me like, either way; we won’t be seeing Cole for the rest of the season, which would be a big shame as I got the feeling he would have made a noticeable contribution at times and in certain games in the final few months.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

I say this with a little sigh but Jack isn’t having a good first season in a City shirt in my opinion and so the question often remains, for me, “Do we go Jack or Raheem on the left?”. Raheem himself can be – and has been this season – very ‘hit & miss’ and I suppose, therefore, if I was going with MY strongest side, I’d be tempted to put Ilkay in there instead of Jack and move Phil over to the left.

Having said that, Phil often does pose a real threat as a false striker - I’ve seen him tear teams apart down the left too though – so, yeah; I’d have to say I can [also] agree with that predicted 11.

Result? Both sides and managers know each other so very well – we know what to expect from our hosts and they know what we’re going to bring into their house. I, for one, expect to see us up against a 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 formation, with their new ‘big guy’ up front hoping to get on the end of some counter-attacking moves & crosses. It’s definitely something we need to be wary of. Should he play, I think we also need to be watchful of left-winger / wing-back, Maxwel Cornet.

Being so familiar of each other’s strengths & ‘soft spots’, is there any need for either manager to overly prepare for this encounter? Well…desperation might play a part in answering that.

Burnley have always gone into the final lap of league fixtures in a fairly precarious position but I think it’s both fair and accurate of me to say that this is the most vulnerable to the drop they’ve ever looked at this stage. I could be wrong.

As for us, our desperation for points is completely different but certainly no less important, from our perspective at least. We need to keep ahead of our one & only league threat from the other end of the A580 - any stumble will be pounced upon for sure.

So, if there are any surprises to be sprung by either boss this afternoon – whether that’s a little in-game tactical switch or something more elaborate – it’ll be interesting to see and observe the result of.

As a non-football manager, there’s one very obvious obstacle that we need to overcome, which is The Clarets’ organised & mean defence against our hugely talented players who are prone to moments of ‘stage fright’ when it comes to ‘the final third’ of the pitch in terms of ‘killer passes’ and accurate shooting.

Although they lie 2^nd-bottom and 4 points adrift of the team in safety who have played the same number of games; what stands out as impressive against the teams around them is their ‘goals against’ & ‘games lost’ column.

From 14^th-place down to 20^th, the teams around them have conceded 49, 47, 67, 47, 55 & 63. Burnley? Just 38! From 15^th down to 20^th, the number of losses suffered by those teams around them read, 16, 15, 16, 19 & 20. Burnley? Just 12.

Especially for those who follow the Premier League closely, perhaps it didn’t need spelling out that Burnley are a solid outfit who are very difficult to break down; that they are a side who earn their ‘shared points’ (12 draws from 27 league games played / 44.4%).

But I do think those stats underline just what a difficult task lies ahead of us this afternoon (3:00pm KO BST); the challenge that lies ahead of a side who, if their collective heads aren’t in the right place, could find themselves trying to knock down a reinforced door with a toffee hammer.

That being said, Burnley are missing quite a few personnel through injury; one suspension as well as those who are recovering from recent issues but aren’t quite ‘match ready’. Those missing players do include defenders who are certainly deemed as, “regular, first teamers”.

Having watched our manager’s pre-match press conference, it does appear that we’re in ‘fine fettle’, player availability-wise.

All things considered? Of course, it’s gonna be tough but I feel an away win is on the cards this afternoon. It’s a City win from me.

It’s another game I’m not going to get to watch and, worse still this time, not likely to get to listen to either! ☹ ☹

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: Win

Result: Won

(Pre-match blog posting from that game)

Expected weather conditions during the game: A beautiful day for a game of footy. 9C and sunny intervals are accompanied by a slight, north-easterly breeze, which will make it feel a little “fresh” in shaded areas. Dress appropriately for an early spring 397-feet up in the northern hills of England and it should be a very enjoyable experience for the fans. Perfect for the players to ‘put in a shift’ too.

Solidarity

 

Mixed feelings ahead of Saints clash

I’ve actually not really been looking forward to writing this for one reason or another…

Mixed feelings:

1.    The Palace game. A result I got wrong, as I put us down for a win, but one that didn’t exactly come as much of a surprise as the final whistle blew. Why? Firstly, I predicted a tough home side to break down and secondly; we continue to look a little ‘off colour’ at the moment and all it takes is for us to have one of those ‘slightly off’ games to give the opposition a decent chance of grabbing something from the match. As it turns out, in addition to a packed & organised Eagles’ defence & midfield, we spurned at least two very good chances and our final pass / passing was, once again, just not good enough by our current standards.

2.    Whilst I would say that Ederson, John Stones & Kevin De Bruyne are three players I would consider to be in good, consistent form – chucking into the mix also Bernardo Silva & Riyad Mahrez who have had largely very good performances blighted only by a couple of half-off-games - too many players look a little out of sorts and / or tired and it concerns me that so many of the lads appear that way as we go into ‘the business end’ of the season, as it’s often referred to. And so…

3.    …that having just been said, I don’t know what to make of this up & coming international break. Having had a very quick look at the international fixtures ahead, I assume most, if not all, of our key players will be ‘jetting off’ to various parts of the world. Putting aside the usual risk of picking up an injury whilst representing your country; I just wonder how many of our players will come back feeling refreshed by a change of environment…but equally, just how many seemingly-under-the-weather players will come back feeling even more jaded.

4.    Pep peeing me off again. It doesn’t happen often but I know, having both listened and spoken to other Blues, that I’m not the only one to think that he was wrong not to make changes against Crystal Palace last Monday. It doesn’t happen often at all [him annoying me] and I think he is both a genius of a manager and a Manchester City legend, for sure. However, he’s had these moments before when we’re seemingly running into brick walls without making a dent – it’s a kind of stubbornness that sets in as he stares intently at the pitch; seemingly in his own world, at times, and utterly convinced that the 11 players he chose to start will ‘do the job’. Well…they didn’t and I, for one, was urging him to take one of our under-performing players off, Jack Grealish, around about 60 minutes; move Phil Foden over to the left wing, who was having a very quiet game where he was until the last 15 minutes or so, and introduce the craft of Ilkay Gundogan at the very least. 0-0; over to Liverpool and…

5.    …they flippin’ well got the result, didn’t they? I really had high hopes that in-form Arsenal could, at the very least, share the points. ‘Breathing down our neck’ doesn’t seem to quite say it for me at the moment – I can feel their collective breath like a strong breeze 35.7 miles away! Panicked by the possibility that the team from L4 might overtake us and win the league? No. A little twitchy that they have the momentum whilst we seemingly have one squeaky wheel that occasionally wobbles? Definitely – you’d have to be blinkered or lying to yourself if you’d say otherwise, in my book at least. Therefore…

6.    …as we go into a quarter final F.A. Cup tie, I’m finding it somewhat difficult to focus on anything other than the league; despite knowing that nothing can change, in that respect, until the frustrating, seemingly-far-future date of 2^nd April.

7.    And my final mixed feeling, for now at least, comes in the form of…what personnel choices does our manager make for our trip to the south coast? Does he refresh, ‘change it up’ and give some other players ‘a crack’, despite knowing that first choice players don’t have to feature for their club again for another 13 days? Well, dropping 4 points from the last 15 in the league certainly suggests that players nearer the fringe might deserve their chance. However, does anyone remember the last time we visited St. Mary’s? Does anyone remember how, despite our 74% possession, the home side showed so much spirit, defended so very well and deserved a share of the points in most people’s opinion? Does anyone remember how they had just 7 shots but that 3 of those were on target and one of ‘em went in, whilst at the same time we had 20 shots but only managed to get 5 on target; taking a 65^th minute equalising goal from a defender, Laporte, to salvage a point? Does anyone remember how poorly Jack Grealish played…and what an absolute STINKER Raheem Sterling had? Even Phil Foden looked ‘out of sorts’ as he appeared to struggle to link up with Jack on the left that night; something, which, was largely repeated last Monday in my opinion. And how did we fair against The Saints at home back in September? It ended 0-0 in a game where the BBC described Southampton as, resolute; whist at the same time the stats show 16 shots in anger from us…with only 1 on target.

 

Put another way, this is going to be yet-another tough game where we’ll need our very best players on the pitch and performing if we want to progress to the semi-finals.

 

8.    OH SORRY! I forgot one more…“mixed feeling”. I really want to watch this one – I’m desperate to see ‘a reaction’ from us. I want to witness a proper City performance. However, because of our progression in the domestic cup competition; because of our postponed league fixture and subsequent schedule change from Saturday to Sunday afternoon; there’s some chance that I won’t even get to watch the whole of the flippin’ encounter at St. Mary’s; having pre-arranged birthday celebration plans a 40-minute drive away that starts at 5:00pm. How peed off do I sound at the moment… ☹  C’mon City, please change my mood.

v Southampton

St. Mary's Stadium

There must be some temptation for our manager to make some changes for this one and it is very difficult to get inside his head most of the time. However, having thought long & hard about this fixture, I believe that, like me, Pep sees this one as another, really tough nut to crack and, therefore, he’ll need most of his ‘big guns’ out form the start. Therefore…

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game: 10/11).

Fluid 4-1-5-0 / 4-6-0 / 4-3-3:

______________________________________________

 

Foden___________________________________Mahrez

____________________De Bruyne_________________

________Gundogan_________________Silva________

 

___________________Fernandinho_________________

Cancelo__________________________________Walker

 

___________Laporte_____________Stones__________

 

 

_____________________Steffen____________________

Subs: Ederson, Zinchenko, Ake, Rodri, Grealish, Sterling, Palmer, McAtee, Jesus.

Surely a fit Zack gets the F.A. Cup games. That’s what I’m guessing.

I nearly did it – I nearly predicted Pep starting Oleksandr from the start but having tried to mindread the Spanish manager; I’m going with a back 4 of Joao, Aymeric, John & Kyle.

One change I can see is often-dependable Fernandinho getting a start and, of course, captaining the side.

Ahead of the Brazilian veteran is a fluid, attacking, interchangeable 5 consisting of Phil, Ilkay (another change), Kevin, Bernardo & Riyad.

Ederson takes a step back to act as reserve stopper; Oleksandr & Nathan are the defensive replacement options on the side. Rodders, Jack, Raheem, Cole, James & Gabriel are the midfield / wing / attacking personnel waiting to ‘get the nod’.

5 subs from 9 are allowed in the F.A. Cup.

Notable absences:

-       Benjamin Mendy – Suspended by the club until further notice.

-       Ruben Dias – Good news! The club have recently released pictures of Ruben back in training on Thursday. Although that’s a good 2 to 4 weeks ahead of their initial assessment of his hamstring injury, I would imagine that this fixture will come way too soon to risk the Portuguese international. However, unless he has a setback whilst most of his colleagues are away; I can see the 24-year-old being in contention straight after the international break. Apparently, some Liverpool fans have accused our manager of playing ‘mind games’ when the club released the news…

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Yes…but I’d like to add that I would like to see Cole Palmer (assumed fully recovered from a foot injury and fit enough) and / or James McAtee get a go tomorrow afternoon at some point. With everything that I've mentioned about the condition & form of some of our players, I think these two, attacking youngsters could prove vital in the coming weeks & months...

Result? Our host, who are generally respected by fans of other sides and pundits alike for their work rate and organisation under their current manager, have ‘hit the buffers’ in recent weeks. Some terrific results in the league in February may even have seen some Saint’s fans glancing ever-so-briefly up at 7^th at one point. However, a 4-0 defeat away at Aston Villa followed by two 1-2 home defeats to both Newcastle and, lastly, struggling Watford ‘put paid to that’.

They’ll want make amends for sure as they line us up in their sights.

As for us, in all competitions since (and including) our last trip to Southampton, our form has been: D W W W W L W W W D D, with the underlined results being a non-Premier League fixture (F.A. Cup & Champions League). A little bit patchy, I’m sure you’d agree; an occasional ‘wobbly wheel’ as I’ve already said.

I can’t recall the last time we failed to win 3 games in a row under our current boss – to be honest, I’m not 100% sure we ever have.

Aside from the recent Derby fixture, we might have been 8 or 10% off our ‘top game’ in some of our matches in recent weeks but I have a feeling that the group will have had their heads together most of this week trying to get to the route of the problem.

We WILL need everything in our locker to break these down as well as to match, at the very least, their collective determination. The kit staff also need to remember to pack the player’s shooting boots before boarding their transport. I’m gonna have faith that the players will put in a top performance - for me, it’s another sky-blue trip to Wembley for the semis.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: N/A

Result: N/A

Expected weather conditions during the game: Brilliant, sky-blue skies and glorious sunshine before, during and after the game. It’ll be a bit fresh, for sure; 9 or 10C is the official temperature, which isn’t too bad, but they’ll be a breeze blowing in off The Solent to remind everyone that it’s still mid-March in England. An adequate coat and a good pair of shades for the fans, I’d advise; perfect conditions for the players, I would suggest.

Solidarity

Predictions v Crystal Palace

v Crystal Palace

Selhurst Park

Having gone unusually early (Thursday afternoon) with his pre-match press conference, especially for a Monday night kick off; our manager couldn’t give updates on recently injured and illness-hit players ahead of this one, which makes it even more difficult to forecast.

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game: 8/11).

Fluid 4-1-5-0 / 4-6-0 / 4-3-3:

______________________________________________

 

Grealish_________________________________Mahrez

____________________De Bruyne_________________

__________Foden_________________Silva__________

 

______________________Rodri____________________

Zinchenko________________________________Walker

 

___________Laporte_____________Stones__________

 

 

_____________________Ederson__________________

Subs: Carson, Slicker, Wilson-Esbrand, Mbete, Fernandinho, Gundogan, Sterling, McAtee, Jesus.

Ederson is net.

Unless Joao Cancelo recovers enough to be considered for a start, I think we’ll see Oleksandr start in the left-wing back position and will be joined by Aymeric, John & Kyle in the back 4.

Rodders just in front of those and ahead of the Spanish defensive midfield is a likely fluid, interchangeable, ‘attacking’ 5 of Jack, Phil, Kevin, Bernardo & Riyad.

Once again, unless Zack Steffen is deemed to have got over whatever it is that’s been keeping him out recently, then I can see our manager fielding 2 reserve stoppers on the bench in the form of Scott & Cieran. Josh & Luke are the only 2, young defenders on the side; Fernandinho, Ilkay, Raheem, James & Gabriel are the midfield / wing / attacking options in ‘the 9’.

Notable absences:

-       Zack Steffen – No update, so I’ve assumed that the American keeper has not recovered from his (back? shoulder?) niggle. He wasn’t seen in training on Thursday, at least…

-       Benjamin Mendy – Suspended by the club until further notice.

-       Joao Cancelo – No update on whether he has recovered from a recent illness / sickness. He too wasn’t seen in training on Thursday, at least…

-       Nathan Ake – Once again, no update about whether the Dutch international defender has recovered from his bad landing the other week. I suspect that he might, at least, make the bench but like both Zack & Joao; he wasn’t seen in training on Thursday…

-       Ruben Dias – Out for 3 to 5 weeks with a hamstring injury.

-       Cole Palmer – No update at all on the young, attacking midfielder since we were last told about a week ago that he was close to returning to training, which he didn’t on Thursday…unless it was behind closed doors and away from the rest of the squad.

UPDATE - 13.03.2022, 9:45am: Reports from yesterday state that Zack Steffen, Joao Cancelo, Nathan Ake & Cole Palmer all trained on Saturday. Whether that means they are deemed ready to step into the match-day squad for tomrrow night remains to be seen but that is very possitive news indeed.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Yep.

Result? Just one defeat in their last eight in all competitions should tell you a little bit about where are hosts are at the moment and what task lies ahead of us; the fact that The Eagles have either held us to a draw or deservedly taken all-3 points off us in recent seasons should tell you also that we have a game on our hands on Monday night (8:00pm KO GMT) and we most-certainly have to be ‘on it’ in South London.

Quick Palace fact: Since 8^th January 2022, only Liverpool & Chelsea have inflicted defeat on the side from Croydon in 11 games played in all competitions.

They don’t score too many in the league, with “just” 39 from 28 played, but only 4 sides outside of the ‘top 7’ have a better defensive record – when they want to ‘dig in’, they’re a terribly difficult outfit to break down. Blues fans will most likely have to hold their nerve and show some patience; whilst at the same time our players have to maintain belief that if we keep ‘doing our thing’, we will breach their defences eventually.

However, whilst we’re constantly trying to pick our way through the forest of red & blue shirts, we will have to be sharp at the back too; as they will, no doubt, try to ‘hit us on the counter’ and at pace. What has concerned me a little in recent weeks in particular is that our wing-backs are pushing themselves SO far up in support of our attacking midfielders & wingers that we’re exposing ourselves a little too much, for my liking at least.

Before Manyoo got their equaliser last Sunday, I’d already spotted 3 occasions where we looked vulnerable on both defensive flanks and, sure enough, former Blue, Jadon Sancho, ran into clear space where our right-wing back should have been to give the reds some hope. I think it’s incredible how our flanking defenders give additional attacking assistance to our more-forward players but I do, sometimes, think that they - and perhaps our manager - forget that they are wing-backs…and perhaps Rodri needs to drop back more to ‘fill out’ our defence whenever Walker & Cancelo, or whoever, go marauding forward.

All that being said, I think we have ‘our swagger’ back and there’s never doubting the endeavour that Pep instils in his players.

That work rate – along with craft – will be needed aplenty and I think we’ll see that on Monday. It’s a much-needed away win for me.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

(Pre-match blog posting from that game)

Prediction: Win

Result: Won

Expected weather conditions during the game: A fine, nothing-much-doin’ evening. No rain, little in the way of a breeze and some broken cloud, which will see the temperature during the game registering at 8C. Perfect for the players; warm coats and perhaps hat & gloves for the watching fans, I would suggest.

Solidarity

 

Blood & bones

With so many first-teamers out along with players who need resting / protecting, which leaves us with a fairly threadbare defence in particular; I wonder if our visitors will ‘smell blood’ and fancy turning around a 5-0 deficit tonight (8:00pm KO GMT)?

v Sporting CP

Etihad Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game: 10/11).

Down to the ‘bare bones’ in some ways…

Fluid 4-1-4-1 / 4-2-3-1 / 4-6-0 / 4-3-3:

______________________________________________

_____________________Jesus____________________

Grealish________________________________Sterling

_____________________________McAtee___________

_________Gundogan____________________________

 

_____________________Rodri_____________________

Zinchenko________________________________Stones

 

___________Laporte____________Fernandinho______

 

 

_____________________Ederson__________________

Subs: Carson, Slicker, Wilson-Esbrand, Egan-Riley, Mbete, Lavia, Silva, De Bruyne, Bobb, Kayky, Delap.

Ederson has the gloves.

I think the only two defenders I would have down as “certainties”, for now at least, are Oleksandr & Aymeric - I believe that unless Pep trusts in a youth player to run the other flanking defensive position then it’ll be John who will be asked to cover that role once more. That’s what I’m going for and if I’m correct, I can see our club captain being asked to-also cover a position he’s played in before; leaving us with just one player in the back 4, Aymeric, who will be playing in his natural position.

Rodders, therefore, is surely needed tonight…and needed more than ever to keep an extra eye over his shoulder. Additionally, I can see Ilkay being asked to help with defensive midfield duties and we might even see the Spaniard & German internationals ‘sit in as a 2’.

Either way, ahead of all of those I can see an attacking 4 of Jack, James, Raheem & Gabriel.

12 allowed on the subs bench in this competition but I can only find 11 to ‘stick in there’…and I get the feeling that Pep won’t even bother putting 11 on the side for this one. However…

2 reserve keepers, I would have thought, in the form of Scott & Cieran; Josh, Conrad & Luke are the 3, very-young defenders amongst the subs. Romeo, Bernardo, Kevin, Oscar, Kayky & Liam are the midfield / wing / attacking options waiting to receive ‘the call’.

Notable absences:

-       Zack Steffen – Despite a fairly detailed report from our manager regarding who is injured, there was no mention of the American stopper…and neither did any of the journalists ask in the pre-match press conference. Initially – and following Zack missing out on his country’s last outing – it was due to a back injury; then he came back briefly, then he was out with a shoulder issue and now one site has him out until mid-March…with a back problem, although I don’t know what their source is. Therefore – and regardless - I’m just assuming that he’s out for this match. 🙄

-       Benjamin Mendy – Suspended by the club until further notice.

-       Joao Cancelo – Out of action with an illness. If it’s Covid – and I’m not suggesting for one second that it is – it could be more than just this fixture that the versatile wing-back misses…

-       Kyle Walker – Suspended. And it seems I was right when I posted recently about a ‘gut feeling’ that Pep might [still] be annoyed with the England man following is reckless action towards the end of a ‘dead rubber’ Champions League game back in December. When the subject was brought up in the pre-match press conference yesterday, our manager admitted that he was still so angry with him…and he looked it.

-       Nathan Ake – Still not recovered from a recent injury in time for this fixture. Pep went into more detail about the Dutch defender in that Nathan is close to a return but the club’s doctors have advised not to rush him back; it would be too risky to do so, by all accounts, and with other defenders missing for a variety of reasons also, it would be silly to bring him back too soon. My feeling is that the Palace league game on Monday night could be 50/50 too…

-       Ruben Dias – Out for 3-½ to 5-½ weeks with a hamstring injury.

-       Cole Palmer – Similar to Zack Steffen – Guardiola neither mentioned the young, attacking midfielder and neither did anyone ask about him. Last we heard ahead of the derby last weekend is that Cole was close to resuming training…but that same website has him missing until around mid-March with the same foot injury he picked up over 2 months ago. I’ve assumed that he’s not ready for tonight.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Under the circumstances, yeah.

Result? Who on earth could predict this one?! I’ve had every result in my head over the last couple of days from a narrow defeat, a well-earned draw to a narrow victory; where Pep plays a number of kids and they go on do themselves proud against a side who are vastly more experienced but who had half given up on the tie before the ball was even kicked.

Flip a coin…

I suppose all things considered; I’m going for the draw.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: N/A

Result: N/A

Expected weather conditions during the game: Dry, windy and mild for the time of year in the UK and for a night game in early-to-mid March in particular (10C).

Solidarity