Blue chews-daze: Let’s rediscover ourselves and…

…find those flippin’ shooting boots!

First of all…

…the Southampton ‘mirror’

I don’t know about you, the reader, but I think our victory in the F.A. Cup against Southampton on Sunday 20^th March summed up our entire season in some ways.

· I thought the first 10 we went ‘toe to toe’ with a side who were ‘up for it’ and had the backing of ‘pumped up’, expectant home fans.

· I thought we then stepped up and largely dominated from minute 11 to around 30 minutes but, for some strange reason, our passing went off again; we lost a little bit of focus in some areas and The Saint gained the initiative, which resulted in an own goal equaliser. What IS that switch that we appear to have found recently, which we seemingly turn on & off periodically in some games? One ex-Southampton Manager said, at half time, that City, all of a sudden, “…went casual”. Coincidentally, that’s something I’ve discussed very recently with a fellow Blue who used that very same phrase when describing some of our performances since the end of January.

· I only got to listen to the second half on our car radio due to a previously-planned family get-together which clashed with our rearranged, weekend fixture but it was still clear that we came out after the break refocused and, as the minutes ticked by, our passing & pressing improved. Chuck in a couple of substitutions – two players [Foden & Mahrez] I felt should have been on from the start – and we were just too much for the side who had previously held us to two draws earlier on in the season. According to the BBC, Kevin De Bruyne admitted post-match that we weren’t up to our usual standard and I think that could be said of quite a few of our recent games; even those we have gone on to win.

I just feel similar about our season so far – a season where, as I begin to prep this piece on 21^st March, we sit top of the league by a point; are in the semi-finals of the F.A. Cup and the quarter finals of the Champions League. Huh…not bad, hey?!

Now, I don’t know whether it’s because I get the feeling that high expectations have FINALLY, after many recent years of improving quality and trophy winning, caught up with me but I’ve found ‘blips’ in our season really frustrating at times. Of course, every team has ‘em…but am I the only City fan who thinks that at least half of them were avoidable?

After our opening day defeat away at Spurs, which Pep has repeatedly put down to-us-having so many ‘first choice’ players not ready to play (although they were on the bench that Sunday), we EXPLODED into action! 5-0 v Norwich, 5-0 v Arsenal; a really tough, battling, high-energy 0-1 away victory at Leicester, a 6-3-win v RB Leipzig, 6-1 v Wycombe in the League Cup was followed by a 0-1 away win in the league against Chelsea! These were all part of a terrific run, where we later shared the points away at Liverpool; knocked in another 5 in the Champions League against Club Bruges before banging in 4 away in the Premier League against Brighton.

I think THIS is the reason that, when the team doesn’t do what they are clearly capable of, it becomes more than just ‘head scratching’ for me and so many other City fans, I’ve noticed recently also.

After that Brighton win, we went to West Ham in the League Cup and so many of our attacking players appeared ‘off colour’ and were misfiring that night. A whopping 25 shots and just 7 heading in before being blocked / saved. Put another way, only around 1 in 4 were on target. Next up was Palace at home in the league. Result? A 0-2 home defeat. We were restricted to just 14 shots that day but, once again, just 3 on target saw a mere 1 in 5 shots heading in against The Eagles.

2 back-to-back games, 190 minutes played in total; no goals scored before the final whistle blew…our own foot successfully shot by ourselves. It was the first sign that we had a wobbly wheel that needed looking at, which came in the form of misfiring but also some wayward passing too. Desire, however, could never be questioned.

We then shrugged it off and went on a TERRIFIC run throughout November, December and most of January until…guess who? Southampton away. This was a side who had held us to a 0-0’er at home back in September. In that early season game, we had 16 shots and how many of ‘em was on target? Just yer 1. The reverse fixture at their ground in January was so similar, in some ways; with 74% possession, 20 shots but only 5 on target. Put both Southampton league fixtures together and that’s 36 shots but just 6 on target! I mean…wow.

That Southampton away game was the start of a run of form that looks like this up to date: D W W W W L W W W D D W, with the underlined results being cup games. Still not bad at all, despite some more blips.

I’m not suggesting for one second that we’re not allowed negative results…and I’m certainly not turning into a Manyoo fan of old who believes that we have a divine right to win every game and how DARE the opposition get the better of us!

No…but it’s the MANNER of those shared points or, worse, defeats.

In that run of wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat that I’ve highlighted in our last 11 outings, that defeat at home to Spurs was a travesty for me. Everyone with an interest in that game just KNEW that we had to be on our guard against Spurs’ breakaways and the threatening counter-attacking players they had / have in their side. They were a team who weren’t playing well at all at the time; who were inconsistent, to say the very least; had a striker who couldn’t score and a very leaky defence. We breached them twice, in fact, but…TA-DAAAA! 3 break-aways and a hattrick for struggling Harry. Welcome back to old, ‘typical City’. Our defence, particularly our wing-backs, pressed SO high that day that we were ‘sucked in’ by the visitors and ‘sucker punched’.

Fast forward 4 & 5 games ahead and we go a full 190 minutes against Sporting CP (okay the 2-legged fixture was ‘done & dusted’) & Crystal Palace without scoring a single goal once again. It was Groundhog Day. And here it is again folks…33 shots in those two games and just 8 on target. Can anyone else hear that squeaky wheel again?

When I listened to Phil Foden thundering in a brilliant shot at St. Mary’s, my first reaction was to think, THAT’S what we’ve been missing at key times and in certain games this season! Well, we have Liverpool grabbing hold of the back of our shirts in the league and, no disrespect to the other sides who remain in both the F.A Cup & Champions League, but we go ‘head-to-head’ against the Merseysiders in the F.A. Cup semi-final and, all being well for us, we could face ‘em final of the Champions League, I think I’m right in sayin’. What a challenging prospect!

Whether that’s the case or not - and WHOEVER we face and in whatever competition - I just hope that the management / coaching team at Manchester City keep showing the squad that Foden v Southampton goal over and over again. That…and the lads tighten up their passing and improve their final-ball decision-making too.

Having started to follow Manchester City regularly since the mid-1980s, I still consider myself to be a very much grounded Blue. However, I have to admit that this is the first season, as I say, where new-found expectation levels have finally caught up with me. I won’t let them sweep me away to-becoming an arrogant fan of a successful football club – and I will ALWAYS give the opposition the credit they deserve - but I can’t say that I won’t feel more than slightly irritated whenever we fail to do what we are very much capable of doing in most games.

v Burnley

Turf Moor

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game: 7/11).

Fluid 4-1-5-0 / 4-6-0 / 4-3-3:

______________________________________________

Grealish_________________________________Mahrez

_____________________Foden____________________

_________De Bruyne______________Silva__________

______________________Rodri____________________

Cancelo__________________________________Walker

___________Laporte_____________Stones__________

_____________________Ederson__________________

Subs: Steffen, Zinchenko, Ake, Mbete, Fernandinho, Gundogan, Sterling, McAtee, Jesus.

Ederson has the gloves.

A back-4 of Joao, Aymeric, John, who it seems is fine after being withdrawn as a precaution whilst on international duty after “feeling something” & Kyle.

Rodders is ‘the holder’ / link-up midfielder and ahead on the Spaniard is a fluid, interchangeable attacking 5 of Jack, Kevin, Phil, Bernardo & Riyad.

Zack wasn’t mentioned in the pre-match press conference injury report and, so, I assume he is past both his recent back and shoulder issues. He gets the reserve stopper job. Oleksandr, Nathan & Luke are the back-up defenders on the side; Fernandinho, Ilkay, Raheem, James & Gabriel are the midfield / wing / attacking options in ‘the 9’.

Still 3 subs from 9 allowed in the Premier League at the moment but that is changing to 5 from next season, in order to bring us in line with teams in Europe. Also, for that very reason, the summer transfer window will now open on 10^th June rather than 1^st July and will still close early September.

Notable absences:

- Ruben Dias – It would appear that a recent report stating that Ruben was seen back in training early from a 4-to-6-week estimated layoff following a hamstring injury were well wide of the mark. Our manager has now confirmed that he will not only miss today’s match but also our midweek, 1^st-leg clash with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League as well as our league clash with Liverpool the following Sunday.

- Cole Palmer – It seems that the foot injury Cole sustained almost 3 months ago, where he appeared to-have-almost recovered according to reports a few weeks ago, now appears more problematic. According to Pep, the England Under-21 attacker is able to train for 2 or 3 days but that-then leaves the Manchester-born 19-year-old in pain to the point where he has to rest for a couple of days. Of course, City’s medical staff are monitoring the situation but surgery is an option they are considering. It sounds to me like, either way; we won’t be seeing Cole for the rest of the season, which would be a big shame as I got the feeling he would have made a noticeable contribution at times and in certain games in the final few months.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

I say this with a little sigh but Jack isn’t having a good first season in a City shirt in my opinion and so the question often remains, for me, “Do we go Jack or Raheem on the left?”. Raheem himself can be – and has been this season – very ‘hit & miss’ and I suppose, therefore, if I was going with MY strongest side, I’d be tempted to put Ilkay in there instead of Jack and move Phil over to the left.

Having said that, Phil often does pose a real threat as a false striker - I’ve seen him tear teams apart down the left too though – so, yeah; I’d have to say I can [also] agree with that predicted 11.

Result? Both sides and managers know each other so very well – we know what to expect from our hosts and they know what we’re going to bring into their house. I, for one, expect to see us up against a 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 formation, with their new ‘big guy’ up front hoping to get on the end of some counter-attacking moves & crosses. It’s definitely something we need to be wary of. Should he play, I think we also need to be watchful of left-winger / wing-back, Maxwel Cornet.

Being so familiar of each other’s strengths & ‘soft spots’, is there any need for either manager to overly prepare for this encounter? Well…desperation might play a part in answering that.

Burnley have always gone into the final lap of league fixtures in a fairly precarious position but I think it’s both fair and accurate of me to say that this is the most vulnerable to the drop they’ve ever looked at this stage. I could be wrong.

As for us, our desperation for points is completely different but certainly no less important, from our perspective at least. We need to keep ahead of our one & only league threat from the other end of the A580 - any stumble will be pounced upon for sure.

So, if there are any surprises to be sprung by either boss this afternoon – whether that’s a little in-game tactical switch or something more elaborate – it’ll be interesting to see and observe the result of.

As a non-football manager, there’s one very obvious obstacle that we need to overcome, which is The Clarets’ organised & mean defence against our hugely talented players who are prone to moments of ‘stage fright’ when it comes to ‘the final third’ of the pitch in terms of ‘killer passes’ and accurate shooting.

Although they lie 2^nd-bottom and 4 points adrift of the team in safety who have played the same number of games; what stands out as impressive against the teams around them is their ‘goals against’ & ‘games lost’ column.

From 14^th-place down to 20^th, the teams around them have conceded 49, 47, 67, 47, 55 & 63. Burnley? Just 38! From 15^th down to 20^th, the number of losses suffered by those teams around them read, 16, 15, 16, 19 & 20. Burnley? Just 12.

Especially for those who follow the Premier League closely, perhaps it didn’t need spelling out that Burnley are a solid outfit who are very difficult to break down; that they are a side who earn their ‘shared points’ (12 draws from 27 league games played / 44.4%).

But I do think those stats underline just what a difficult task lies ahead of us this afternoon (3:00pm KO BST); the challenge that lies ahead of a side who, if their collective heads aren’t in the right place, could find themselves trying to knock down a reinforced door with a toffee hammer.

That being said, Burnley are missing quite a few personnel through injury; one suspension as well as those who are recovering from recent issues but aren’t quite ‘match ready’. Those missing players do include defenders who are certainly deemed as, “regular, first teamers”.

Having watched our manager’s pre-match press conference, it does appear that we’re in ‘fine fettle’, player availability-wise.

All things considered? Of course, it’s gonna be tough but I feel an away win is on the cards this afternoon. It’s a City win from me.

It’s another game I’m not going to get to watch and, worse still this time, not likely to get to listen to either! ☹ ☹

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: Win

Result: Won

(Pre-match blog posting from that game)