Blue chews-daze: Predictions v Arsenal.

Straight to it…

Emirates Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game which, for me blog-wise, was our home win against Chelsea last Saturday: 7/11).

A very fluid 4-1-4-1 / 4-5-1 / 4-3-3:

____________________Haaland____________________

__Marmoush___________________________Savinho__

________De Bruyne_______________Foden__________

____________________Kovacic____________________

Gvardiol___________________________________Nunes

___________Stones_____________Akanji____________

____________________Ederson____________________

Subs: Ortega, Lewis, Khusanov, Reis, Gundogan, McAtee, Silva, Bobb and Grealish.

Ederson retains the gloves.

I’m going for a back-4 of makeshift left and right-wing backs, Josko and Matheus, either side of central defenders John and Manuel.

Mateo just in front of those, while a more advanced quartet come in the form of Omar, Kevin, Phil and Savinho.

Erling is the furthest forward but is likely to see a lot of new teammate, Marmoush.

Stefan continues as reserve stopper ahead of what is sure to be a start for him in the F.A. Cup next Saturday; Rico, Abdukodir and Vitor are three defenders on the side. We’ve got three midfielders in the shape of Ilkay, James and Bernardo, while I’m going for Oscar to make his first bench appearance since August alongside Jack, who make up two wing options from the bench.

Notable absences:

- Nathan Ake – Remains out with a muscular issue.

- Ruben Dias – Continues his absence due to an abductor injury.

- Rodri – Out for the season with an Anterior Cruciate Ligament injury. Surgery was completed months ago and the slow road to recovery continues.

- Jeremy Doku – Out with another undisclosed injury that he acquired at the very end of our clash with Ipswich Town on 19^th January; his third injury spell of the season. Last weekend, his manager informed us that the Belgium international will be out for “a while”, so… 🤷‍♂️

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Yeah, under the circumstances I’d say that’s about the best we could be looking at; with a nod towards the fact that I think Bernardo needs some respite if at all possible and can rotate with Kevin when needs be.

Result?

The last time we went to the Emirates, 8^th October 2023, it was without Rodri who was serving his last of a 3-match suspension following a straight red at home to Forest for violent conduct. We lost that game against The Gunners 1-0, having held out until the 86^th minute. I have a feeling that every 20 minutes is going to feel more like 86 minutes for us Blues on Sunday afternoon.

Both side’s league form is actually very similar, with both teams having 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 league outings. We have more wins more recently, if you follow my meaning; in the last 4 games we have 3 wins and 1 draw, while they have 2 victories and 2 draws. They have home advantage.

All that suggests that this could be a close contest…and that could very well be the case.

But if the questions were asked of us Blues, “Who is the flakiest side of the two? Who is more likely to concede and capitulate in the end?” If we were being really honest in answering those questions, I think we’d have to say, “We are”. 😢

But it’s a hard one to call in some ways – I’ve heard reporters and pundits say that, despite their form in terms of outcomes, our hosts aren’t exactly playing all that well at the moment; it’s just that they’re somehow getting the results. That, of course, is all that matters in the end but it does suggest that there might be some vulnerability about them. They’re certainly missing the injured Bukayo Saka.

Then there’s our attacking threat, which has most definitely gone up a few notches recently. There are several reason for that:

1. Kevin De Bruyne appears to be being ‘game managed’ very well and is avoiding injury / breakdown, for the moment at least. 🤞 He might not be the Kev of old and I don’t think we’ll ever see that again but a fit Kev is often a big danger to any opposition. Although I have to add that his game / passing radar was way off on Wednesday night.

2. After his second admission of the season, just a few days ago, that he had been feeling burnout following 2023/24 and then a summer tournament with England, who reached the final of Euro 2024, and following a false start after the first time he felt sure he was over it; Phil Foden appears to have FINALLY overcome his early season fatigue. Last season’s Premier League Player of the Season appears to be firing once more. Although, like Kevin, he too didn’t have a good game in midweek / appeared to be marked out for the most part.

3. We’ve bolstered our attacking threat with the exciting January acquisition of Omar Marmoush. I think the team is really going to benefit from his acquisition.

4. Oscar Bobb is also very close to a long-awaited return, having been injured with a fractured leg since last August.

When you throw into the mix Jeremy Doku, Savinho and Erling Haaland…somehow the word “wow” doesn’t quite say it when you look at our attacking potential.

Of course, you can’t play all of those at once (I’d love to see that tried though! 😂) and while Jeremy Doku is still out injured, Oscar Bobb will also take time to get fully back up to speed.

I’ll get this one out of the way and apologies in advance, City fans – I just can’t see us winning this one. Then, as my thoughts in midweek very easily bypassed Club Brugge (even before that match) and looked, instead, towards today’s opponents; I was swaying from thoughts of defeat to a draw, to a defeat and back to a draw once again, for all the factors I’ve listed above.

I don’t think there’s a doubt that they’ll be goals at both ends and I say that knowing that our hosts have the joint-best league defensive record; conceding just less than a goal per game with 21 leaked from 23 matches played. That’s the level of confidence or hope at least that I have in our recently-bolstered attack.

But it’s our soft middle and a lack of specialist wing-backs that concerns me and I can only hope (there’s that word again) that if we do score we can limit them to at least the same number of goals.

Hope is a good thing and, therefore, I’m going for a share of the points. It’s a draw from me and after some good results for us yesterday with regards to those teams tucked in just behind us; a tough away point is better than none.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result:

Prediction: Draw

Result: Lost

(Pre-match blog posting from that game)

Expected weather conditions during the game: Crisp, sunny, clear. There’ll definitely be a chill in the air (5C dropping down to just 2C in the second half) when the sun buggers off about 5:00pm but it’s a calm, dry and pleasant evening for a good game of footy. 🧥🧣☕🥧🍺⚽

The ridiculous, just for a laugh attacking formation if all were fit (apart from Rodders who is out for the season)…

The 3-5-1-1 / 3-6-1 attack-formation:

____________________Haaland____________________

___________________Marmoush___________________

Savinho_____________________________________Bobb

_______De Bruyne_____Foden_______Silva___________

________Ake__________Dias_________Akanji________