Sunday, 22 November 2020

The stats that show no improvement

I’m not a MASSIVE stats person but I absolutely do look at them in a measured way.

I think if someone was to JUST look at the statistical analysis of a game without having seen, at the very least, extended highlights of a match; then it can, all-too-often, give a person a distorted view of that game, I believe anyway.

Flipping that over, if you are a real diehard supporter of a team – so much so that you find it almost impossible to look at your side in any critical way whatsoever – then just watching a game and not even glancing at a statistic afterwards can give a person a false reading of a performance…again, in my opinion.

The stats - comparing our last 2 visits:

Same teams, of course; same managers and same ground. Seriously, even the weather conditions were almost identical (see blog-posting links below)!

Sunday 2nd February 2020

Possession: 67%

Shots: 19 to Spurs’ 3

On target: 6 to Spurs’ 3 (all of Spurs’ shots on target)

Corners: 6 to Spurs’ 2

Fouls: 14 to Spurs’ 8

Goals: 0 to Spurs’ 2

(Blog posting from that game)

Saturday 21st November 2020

Possession: 66%

Shots: 22 to Spurs’ 4

On target: 5 to Spurs’ 2 (half of Spurs’ shots were on target)

Corners: 10 to Spurs’ 0

Fouls: 19 to Spurs’ 13

Goals: 0 to Spurs’ 2

(Blog postingfrom that game)

Huh…we even played in a similarly-dark kit – were we simply watching a recording of February’s game yesterday!

Now…this is where you can interpret stats differently to other people; even if you did watch the whole game.

For me…

·         The possession stat simply shows that we are a side managed by Pep Guardiola – that’s his overriding trademark. And to have that much possession, players have to work very, very hard. So, credit to ‘em for not letting that standard drop.

·         And we’re still not shy of ‘having a pop a goal’ at least, which is good. 2 games and a whoppin’ 41 efforts to score. I’m sure you can see the “but” coming a mile off…

·         What a woeful return in terms of shots on target. 41 efforts across both games and only 11 heading between the posts and under the crossbar before it was blocked / saved. In fact, yesterday’s ratio was even worse than it was 10 months ago!

·         Fouls? Well at least it shows that we ‘get stuck in’ and not only has that not dropped but increased in comparison to last winter’s clash.

Brief analysis on yesterday’s game

I’m just going to come out and say this bluntly – Jose Mourinho completely outfoxed Pep Guardiola yesterday. Yes, critics of how Jose often sets his teams up generally - and certainly did so yesterday - will point to the fact that, even at home, he practically played with 6 defenders at times; with 2 midfielders and 2 attackers that were SO deep it effectively made it a 6-4-0 formation…at home!

But here’s the killer, fellow Blues – IT WORKED…AGAIN!

A clean sheet, a few quick breakaways; 2 goals, 3 points. Job done!

And I don’t want that to make it sound like our hosts did nothing else and that it was simple for them against us – yes I thought they defended SO very well but they worked really hard further up the pitch too; slightly harder than some of our players did, I’m sorry to-have-to-add.

And when the time came to be clinical in front of goal, they got their aim right and, unlike the situation we found ourselves in, didn’t have too many defender’s legs getting in the way! We really do need to sort that out as well - defending more consistently well.

Switching focus to us, I recall sitting in a pub watching a game with fellow Blues (remember when you could do that?!) quite a few years ago (Aguero would have been in his late 20s) and I commented that I was a little concerned, even back then, that we weren’t converting enough chances for a side that creates so much. A fellow City fan disagreed with me – it’s allowed.

But around about then – and most certainly since – a lot of City fans have been calling for us to introduce to the squad an additional, quality striker…and many are asking for one of an alternative variety; a player who gives us a ‘different dimension’ up top.

I’ve said for many years now that a team fighting on so many fronts to win as many trophies as possible needs a 3rd, top-quality striker in its ranks and that’s despite the number of goals we do-often get from the midfield / wing department.

I have to believe that, as much as our manager stays true to his playing style (have I just accidentally, but politely, called him stubborn?), that discussions are going on between him others at the club about the possibility of bringing in an additional goal threat.

I just think that those 2 comparative games show that, issues at lot of City fans believe should have been addressed ‘way back when’, have still not been. Huh…either that, or Spurs deserve even MORE praise than I’ve already given them for the way they defended yesterday…

Is there anything else wrong?

I think Kevin De Bruyne is most-definitely missing David Silva. I don’t know about anyone else but can see it a mile off.

As our midfield magician prepared for departure after 10, glorious years; I most-definitely heard a growing number of City fans getting louder about the need to refill the HUGE hole left with someone of similar skill & creativity in the middle of the park. Others felt that we had enough with the ‘other Silva’; Kevin, an emerging Phil Foden and promising EDS midfielders that were closing in on more first team appearances.

I have to, of course, say where I stood on the matter and it links in with the previous topic, in a way.

When asked by reporters over and over again, the manager / club’s stance was that we weren’t going in for an additional, top-quality striker in the summer transfer window just gone. And so, believing them, I definitely joined the voices of those who were asking for the massive loss of a player – one who dictated the tempo of so many games and created so much - to be replaced. Dare I say it, I think we needed to bring in a Bruno Fernandes-type player to supplement the talent we already have…

But we didn’t; we do have a still-learning Phil and an experienced / skilful Bernardo to go with Kevin and if you think that’s enough with the wide men we have also, then fair enough; it’s not a bad argument.

Back to yesterday’s game and to finish…

Riyad Mahrez frustrated me again with another performance where he was largely ineffective but what also frustrated me a little, was that Pep was so slow to change that. He waited until the 72nd minute to do so, by which time we were then 2-0 down. I’m sure it’s not the first time I’ve said that about our otherwise-brilliant manager.

Of course we were dominant, especially in attacking play (10 corners to Tottenham’s 0 says a lot about that) but despite the North London side setting up to frustrate us, I just felt that we needed more “punch” on the pitch and through the middle; something that Phil would, I’m sure, have given us if he’d have spent more than 18+ minutes on the pitch. Perhaps Sergio too - he was on the bench so must have been deemed fit enough to play SOME part.

And although I think our defence looks a lot better, in general, than it did back in February; we really do need to look at how we let teams counter-punch us to, all-too-often, devastating effect. There are a growing number of dissenting, City-fan voices talking about the effectiveness of Rodri too – one recently calling him a, “Chocolate Fireman”.

I’ve got little doubt that we’ll strengthen an area or two in January but I think what concerns me, for now, is that we seem to have lost that intensity, which both dizzied & frightened the hell out of the opposition. Not in every game but, in general, we do seem more…sideways & plodding; giving the opposition far too much time to regroup, organise and plot how they can counter attack us. We need to regain that ‘zip’ as soon as possible.

Is it too early to suggest this? Should we, as City fans, forget trying to regain our league title this season? Shall we, instead, call this a…“re-build season” but one where, of course, we try, once again, to add more silverware of ANY description to the trophy room at M11 3FF; hopefully-also finishing in the top 3 or 4?

I have to say that when I look at our league form of, W L D W D W D L and look at how many points we are already behind teams that just look more solid & consistent than we do; that’s what I’m starting to think.

And do you know what, looking at that inconsistent form of ours, which looks so much like the erratic form we've been in over the last year; looking also at how few shots on target we’re still suffering with and at the defensive lapses that seem to STILL plague us; I have to say, in conclusion, that we haven’t improved in the last year at all in some ways.

Next up, a trip to Greece on Wednesday to, hopefully & absolutely, put the group stage of the Champions League to bed at least.

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