Similarities

It’s not often we can say that we have some things in common with Burnley with regards to in-season statistics but there are, rather alarmingly for us I think, a few comparisons between the two sides coming together at the Etihad later today.

·        Both have a minus goal difference, which is something I would NEVER have believed possible of a Pep Guardiola side after 8 league games.

·        Both sides, respectively, are struggling to score; something that isn’t quite so rare for our opposition but is most certainly for us, compared to other seasons at this stage.

·        Both sides sit in the bottom half of the table which, once again, I would have found almost impossible to get my head around if someone had told me that would be the case a 5^th of the way into the season.

·        Both sides have lost more than 1 of their 8-league games.

I’m sure there are more but I’m sure, also, that you get the point…

But I think what those basic stats emphasise, as if it needed to be, is that we need to start ‘putting sides to the sword’ by scoring more and most-definitely start to string a run of victories together; in order to put ourselves amongst…more familiar company, shall we say?

A few quick words on last Wednesday’s game…

Much better from us in terms of the intensity, I thought, which was back in our play. We are often all over the opposition and nearly always do most of the pressing in a game but I thought we did so last Wednesday night in Greece with a bit more ‘zing’ about us.

I’ve seen some City fans’ postings on-line to suggest that Olympiacos were a poor side and while they did offer nothing up front / we didn’t allow them many attacks; I thought they were an organised, hard-working & resilient side. I’m not sure if those same City fans knew this but our hosts were missing both of their strikers and both of their left-backs all through injury, so they had players playing out of position all over the place in order to make the adjustments.

When you look at it that way, we only JUST managed to score one goal against them so it’s either kudos to them or more concerning signs about our low ability to stick the ball in the net, despite high possession & pressing…

I thought Dias looked very good and Stones also whenever they were called into action. Not so much in terms of having to defend a lot but they kept sharp & alert and I was impressed with how they started some of the moves; linking up well with the midfield and passing very well.

Rodri too – a player under some scrutiny from a section of City fans of late – had a very good game.

And Cancelo looks a different player from the one I, at least, had some doubts about months after we signed him. I think Pep deserves praise for the way he’s nurtured the once-unsettled Portuguese wing-defender.

Most of the other players did okay too but I think Foden deserves the most praise and not just for his goal, which was the result of a very good, quick-passing move. He’s surely gotta be considered for a starting place by his manager this weekend and, I would suggest, more regularly and in the middle of the field too.

I was chuffed, the following day also, to read that we had 22 shots and 11 of them on target. I’ll take 50% as a good starting point of a hopeful period of improved accuracy…

v Burnley

Etihad Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game: 7/11).

Fluid 4-5-1 / 4-3-3:

I just wonder, for this one, does our manager ‘stick’ or ‘twist’?

-      Stick: Keep using a defensive midfielder, as is ‘the norm’.

-      Twist: Replace the usual, deeper-lying midfielder with an additional, attacking / creative one.

____________________Jesus____________________

 

 

Sterling_________________________________Torres

 

__________Foden___De Bruyne___Silva___________

 

Cancelo_________________________________Walker

 

_____________Laporte_______Dias_______________

 

 

___________________Ederson____________________

Subs: Steffen, Mendy, Stones, Fernandinho, Gundogan, Mahrez, Aguero.

Well, I’m definitely ‘sticking my neck out’ by suggesting something that I don’t think Pep has ever done before; certainly not from the start of a game at least. But I don’t think our manager would be risking it too much in this fixture if he were to do so…and I say that not wishing to sound disrespectful to our opponents whatsoever.

I don’t know WHERE this feeling has come from that he might do this and I could be ‘way off’, of course, but…

Ederson has the gloves.

With the rarity of-having 3 or more options on the left flank of the defence; our manager could go one of several ways. However, I’m going for ‘form’ over anything else and even though it’s not his preferred position; I think Joao ‘gets the nod’ as the left-wing back. Rested Kyle on his usual, opposite flank; Ruben to ‘go again’ in the middle and should be joined by rested [also] Aymeric.

Right…here we go – 3 across the middle in the form of Phil, Kevin & Bernardo gives us plenty of energy, creativity and attacking-goal threat and when you add Raheem on the left and Ferran on the right, if I’m correct that is; then that’s a pretty potent 5 to say the very least.

And if that wasn’t enough, you can call that ‘a 6’ when you throw Gabriel on top of all of those.

Zack is the back-up keeper; Benjamin & John the reserve defenders in ‘the 7’. Fernandinho & Ilkay provide midfield cover with Riyad & Sergio the wing / striker change-option from ‘the bench’.

Notable absences:

-      Eric Garcia – Not selected.

-      Nathan Ake – Back in training following a slight hamstring injury but this game comes a little too soon for the Dutch defender. We officially have no “injured” players and I, for one, can’t remember the last time we were able to say that!

-      Oleksandr Zinchenko – Not selected.

-      Rodri – Given a rest? I think that could well be the case for the Spaniard today but I’m ‘bracing myself’ to be wrong here.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Not wanting to sound like I’ve let my heart rule my head but I’d love this line-up to be the case today, so, YES!

Of course, we nearly always face an opponent adopting a defensive posture and, as I’ve alluded to, for that reason today and following a period of low-scoring; I just get the feeling that our manager will cut the brake cable on his own car this afternoon.

Result? No doubt we’ll face another few walls to break down as our visitors, understandably, ‘batten down the hatches’ in readiness of a high-pressing onslaught. And, for a while, they could be difficult for us to demolish.

But I’m not just saying this because recent history between the two sides shows that we have breached the claret & blue walls many, many times and much to Sean Dyche’s annoyance, I’m sure; but it just feels like we’re ‘revving up’ now and ready to ‘unleash’ in terms of goals.

Burnley’s cause isn’t helped by a few injuries to important players and I just can’t see anything other than a City win. I rarely add a predicted score but I’ve been thinking 4-0, or there abouts, for most of the week – as soon as the first one goes in, I think a few more will soon follow.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: Win

Result: Won

(Pre-match blog posting from that game)

Expected weather conditions during the game: If there’s anyone at the stadium who likes really gloomy, dark skies, persistent drizzle and a proper-chilly temperature then they’re in for a real treat! 7C is as “warm” as it’s gonna get and it’s going to be so dull in the misty rain that the floodlights might even be on for the START of the 3:00pm KO (GMT).

 

Let’s try ‘n’ finish it

Finishing top of your Champions League group is often important moving forward in the competition but I think, this season in particular, just getting qualification as early as possible is even more important for us when looking at the packed fixture list that lies ahead, particularly in December.

Securing qualification to the knock-out rounds tonight would be a very welcome outcome indeed, as it would allow for some rest / rotation in our last 2 league-stage games, so that we can start gaining some traction in our domestic league.

v Olympiacos

Karaiskaki Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game: 10/11).

Fluid 4-1-4-1 / 4-5-1 / 4-3-3:

____________________Jesus____________________

 

 

_Sterling_______________________________Torres_

 

____________Foden__________Gundogan_________

 

_________________Fernandinho_________________

Zinchenko______________________________Cancelo

 

_____________Laporte_______Dias_______________

 

 

___________________Ederson____________________

Subs: Steffen, Carson, * Walker, Mendy, Garcia, Stones, Rodri, Doyle, * De Bruyne, * Nmecha, Silva, Torres, Mahrez, Aguero.

Everyone apart from Nathan Ake is fit, we were told by Pep yesterday and, so…

Ederson starts in net.

Cleared of his Covid-19 restriction, I’m guessing also; I would suggest that Oleksandr might be in line for a start on the left flank of the defence. Although our manager, quite righty, is seeing this as an important & difficult fixture, surely this is an opportunity to give Kyle a much-needed rest and although he has played some considerable minutes himself; perhaps Oleksandr coming into the starting 11 will give Joao an opportunity to shift over to his preferred right-hand side. We’ll need to be strong away from home though and, so, I think we’ll see Aymeric & Ruben continue in the middle of the back 4.

Having been back in training for a couple of weeks and assuming his recent stomach bug hasn’t left him feeling weak; I think we might see Fernandinho return as our one & only defensive midfield this evening – 5:55pm GMT. I could be well off with that prediction, as I may be with the left & right-wing backs.

Ahead of the Brazilian, I’m going for our manager to select Raheem, Phil, Ilkay & Ferran.

Gabriel to ‘top the tree’.

12 subs this evening that you can use 5 of, don’t forget, and I think that we’ll see both keepers ‘in there’ as back up to Ed in the form of Zack & Scott. Kyle; a returning Benjamin, Eric & John are the defensive replacement options from the side. Rodders, Tommy, Kevin, Ferran, Riyad & Sergio are in ‘the 12’ as midfield / wing / attacking change-options.

I reckon Sergio will definitely get some minutes at some point to aid his return ahead of Saturday’s league game and if there’s an opportunity to do so; perhaps Aymeric & Ruben might get withdrawn towards the end to rest / protect them.

* Quick update just after posting: I've just learnt that both Kyle Walker & Kevin De Bruyne haven't been included in the match-day squad and are, instead, quite-rightly being rested. * Felix Nmecha comes in...

Notable absences:

-       Nathan Ake – Injured.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Yeah, looks good to me.

Result? Since we last met, our hosts have won both of their league games. The last one was against their neighbours / big rivals, which leaves them sitting top of their domestic league. So, they’re definitely going into this game on a high and as our manager has stated in his pre-match press conference, ‘the Thrylos’ shouldn’t be underestimated.

This will be a tough game but, as I’ve said, there’ll surely be a determination form us to put this league stage of the competition to bed ASAP. Additionally, I think our players were left not just frustrated but also hurt by last weekend’s defeat to Spurs so there should be, therefore, a sense of resolve also to get that one out of their collective systems, as well as using this match as a marker to then try ‘n’ change our fortunes domestically moving forward; finding some much-needed consistency too. I hope so.

It might be a narrow one but I’m going for a City win.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: N/A

Result: N/A

Expected weather conditions during the game: After some stormy, northerly winds throughout the day, it mostly settles down in time for KO. There’ll still be a residual stiff wind throughout the game but it shouldn’t affect play in, what looks like, a tightly enclosed stadium. Very little chance of any ‘wet stuff’ and 12C seems like a nice temperature for the players to run around in.

The stats that show no improvement

I’m not a MASSIVE stats person but I absolutely do look at them in a measured way.

I think if someone was to JUST look at the statistical analysis of a game without having seen, at the very least, extended highlights of a match; then it can, all-too-often, give a person a distorted view of that game, I believe anyway.

Flipping that over, if you are a real diehard supporter of a team – so much so that you find it almost impossible to look at your side in any critical way whatsoever – then just watching a game and not even glancing at a statistic afterwards can give a person a false reading of a performance…again, in my opinion.

The stats - comparing our last 2 visits:

Same teams, of course; same managers and same ground. Seriously, even the weather conditions were almost identical (see blog-posting links below)!

Sunday 2^nd February 2020

Possession: 67%

Shots: 19 to Spurs’ 3

On target: 6 to Spurs’ 3 (all of Spurs’ shots on target)

Corners: 6 to Spurs’ 2

Fouls: 14 to Spurs’ 8

Goals: 0 to Spurs’ 2

(Blog posting from that game)

Saturday 21^st November 2020

Possession: 66%

Shots: 22 to Spurs’ 4

On target: 5 to Spurs’ 2 (half of Spurs’ shots were on target)

Corners: 10 to Spurs’ 0

Fouls: 19 to Spurs’ 13

Goals: 0 to Spurs’ 2

(Blog postingfrom that game)

Huh…we even played in a similarly-dark kit – were we simply watching a recording of February’s game yesterday!

Now…this is where you can interpret stats differently to other people; even if you did watch the whole game.

For me…

·         The possession stat simply shows that we are a side managed by Pep Guardiola – that’s his overriding trademark. And to have that much possession, players have to work very, very hard. So, credit to ‘em for not letting that standard drop.

·         And we’re still not shy of ‘having a pop a goal’ at least, which is good. 2 games and a whoppin’ 41 efforts to score. I’m sure you can see the “but” coming a mile off…

·         What a woeful return in terms of shots on target. 41 efforts across both games and only 11 heading between the posts and under the crossbar before it was blocked / saved. In fact, yesterday’s ratio was even worse than it was 10 months ago!

·         Fouls? Well at least it shows that we ‘get stuck in’ and not only has that not dropped but increased in comparison to last winter’s clash.

Brief analysis on yesterday’s game

I’m just going to come out and say this bluntly – Jose Mourinho completely outfoxed Pep Guardiola yesterday. Yes, critics of how Jose often sets his teams up generally - and certainly did so yesterday - will point to the fact that, even at home, he practically played with 6 defenders at times; with 2 midfielders and 2 attackers that were SO deep it effectively made it a 6-4-0 formation…at home!

But here’s the killer, fellow Blues – IT WORKED…AGAIN!

A clean sheet, a few quick breakaways; 2 goals, 3 points. Job done!

And I don’t want that to make it sound like our hosts did nothing else and that it was simple for them against us – yes I thought they defended SO very well but they worked really hard further up the pitch too; slightly harder than some of our players did, I’m sorry to-have-to-add.

And when the time came to be clinical in front of goal, they got their aim right and, unlike the situation we found ourselves in, didn’t have too many defender’s legs getting in the way! We really do need to sort that out as well - defending more consistently well.

Switching focus to us, I recall sitting in a pub watching a game with fellow Blues (remember when you could do that?!) quite a few years ago (Aguero would have been in his late 20s) and I commented that I was a little concerned, even back then, that we weren’t converting enough chances for a side that creates so much. A fellow City fan disagreed with me – it’s allowed.

But around about then – and most certainly since – a lot of City fans have been calling for us to introduce to the squad an additional, quality striker…and many are asking for one of an alternative variety; a player who gives us a ‘different dimension’ up top.

I’ve said for many years now that a team fighting on so many fronts to win as many trophies as possible needs a 3^rd, top-quality striker in its ranks and that’s despite the number of goals we do-often get from the midfield / wing department.

I have to believe that, as much as our manager stays true to his playing style (have I just accidentally, but politely, called him stubborn?), that discussions are going on between him others at the club about the possibility of bringing in an additional goal threat.

I just think that those 2 comparative games show that, issues at lot of City fans believe should have been addressed ‘way back when’, have still not been. Huh…either that, or Spurs deserve even MORE praise than I’ve already given them for the way they defended yesterday…

Is there anything else wrong?

I think Kevin De Bruyne is most-definitely missing David Silva. I don’t know about anyone else but can see it a mile off.

As our midfield magician prepared for departure after 10, glorious years; I most-definitely heard a growing number of City fans getting louder about the need to refill the HUGE hole left with someone of similar skill & creativity in the middle of the park. Others felt that we had enough with the ‘other Silva’; Kevin, an emerging Phil Foden and promising EDS midfielders that were closing in on more first team appearances.

I have to, of course, say where I stood on the matter and it links in with the previous topic, in a way.

When asked by reporters over and over again, the manager / club’s stance was that we weren’t going in for an additional, top-quality striker in the summer transfer window just gone. And so, believing them, I definitely joined the voices of those who were asking for the massive loss of a player – one who dictated the tempo of so many games and created so much - to be replaced. Dare I say it, I think we needed to bring in a Bruno Fernandes-type player to supplement the talent we already have…

But we didn’t; we do have a still-learning Phil and an experienced / skilful Bernardo to go with Kevin and if you think that’s enough with the wide men we have also, then fair enough; it’s not a bad argument.

Back to yesterday’s game and to finish…

Riyad Mahrez frustrated me again with another performance where he was largely ineffective but what also frustrated me a little, was that Pep was so slow to change that. He waited until the 72^nd minute to do so, by which time we were then 2-0 down. I’m sure it’s not the first time I’ve said that about our otherwise-brilliant manager.

Of course we were dominant, especially in attacking play (10 corners to Tottenham’s 0 says a lot about that) but despite the North London side setting up to frustrate us, I just felt that we needed more “punch” on the pitch and through the middle; something that Phil would, I’m sure, have given us if he’d have spent more than 18+ minutes on the pitch. Perhaps Sergio too - he was on the bench so must have been deemed fit enough to play SOME part.

And although I think our defence looks a lot better, in general, than it did back in February; we really do need to look at how we let teams counter-punch us to, all-too-often, devastating effect. There are a growing number of dissenting, City-fan voices talking about the effectiveness of Rodri too – one recently calling him a, “Chocolate Fireman”.

I’ve got little doubt that we’ll strengthen an area or two in January but I think what concerns me, for now, is that we seem to have lost that intensity, which both dizzied & frightened the hell out of the opposition. Not in every game but, in general, we do seem more…sideways & plodding; giving the opposition far too much time to regroup, organise and plot how they can counter attack us. We need to regain that ‘zip’ as soon as possible.

Is it too early to suggest this? Should we, as City fans, forget trying to regain our league title this season? Shall we, instead, call this a…“re-build season” but one where, of course, we try, once again, to add more silverware of ANY description to the trophy room at M11 3FF; hopefully-also finishing in the top 3 or 4?

I have to say that when I look at our league form of, W L D W D W D L and look at how many points we are already behind teams that just look more solid & consistent than we do; that’s what I’m starting to think.

And do you know what, looking at that inconsistent form of ours, which looks so much like the erratic form we've been in over the last year; looking also at how few shots on target we’re still suffering with and at the defensive lapses that seem to STILL plague us; I have to say, in conclusion, that we haven’t improved in the last year at all in some ways.

Next up, a trip to Greece on Wednesday to, hopefully & absolutely, put the group stage of the Champions League to bed at least.

The Lilywhites v City

A second, pesky international break of the season out of the way leads us to an away trip to North London and the newest & largest [Wembley aside] stadium in our country’s capital.

Can’t wait!

v Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game: 11/11!)

Fluid 4-1-4-1 / 4-5-1 / 4-3-3:

_____________________Jesus____________________

 

 

_Sterling________________________________Torres_

 

___________De Bruyne________Silva______________

 

_____________________Rodri_____________________

Cancelo__________________________________Walker

 

_____________Laporte________Dias_______________

 

 

____________________Ederson___________________

Subs: Steffen, Garcia, Stones, Gundogan, Foden, Mahrez, Aguero.

With so many of our players having a fantastic week for their respective international teams, many would hope to take their fine performances and ‘hit the domestic ground running’. Therefore, I think there’s gonna be a couple of slightly disappointed faces on the bench later on today…but hopefully, also, gritted teeth and a revved up engine ready to burst onto the pitch if they get the opportunity.

Ederson starts in net.

A back-4 of Joao on the left flank, Kyle on the right with Aymeric and 2-goal-hero, Ruben, in the middle of the defence.

I’m going for Rodders to be our one & only holding midfielder with a quartet of attacking midfielders / wingers ahead of him in the form of Raheem, who we are told should be fit enough after picking up a slight niggle whilst away with England, Kevin, Bernardo and Ferran; who got himself a hattrick as his Spanish side thrashed Germany 6-0 the other day!

Although he has proper competition for his place once again; I’m going for our manager to stick with Gabriel ‘up top’ for now. We could see an even more fluid [than usual] system this evening, with no particular out & out striker and, with, Raheem, Gabriel & Ferran all swapping placing and ‘avin’ a go…

Zack is the back-up keeper; Eric & John are the defensive replacement options from the side, I would guess. Ilkay, Phil, who played impressively in England’s last match and, where, he got himself a brace, Riyad, who scored a cracker for Algeria too and a returning Sergio make up the midfield / wing / attacking options from ‘the 7’. I think both Phil & Riyad will be the most disappointed players there, if I’m right.

Notable absences:

-       Benjamin Mendy – ‘The word’ seems to be that he is making progress / is back in training following his LATEST injury-niggle but this game comes too soon for the Frenchman.

-       Oleksandr Zinchenko – May have to isolate following confirmed cases of Covid-19 with his international teammates.

-       Nathan Ake – Injured with ‘a hammy’. Could be another couple of weeks but not too sure on that; could be a little longer.

-       Fernandinho – Has recovered from his injury and was, indeed, back in training / looking forward to being in contention today. However, he now-apparently has a stomach upset, which will keep him out of this one.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

I'm always a little concerned about our left-defensive flank and that's despite Joao Cancelo improving his game recently. It's not his natural side though, of course, and so I'm sure there'll be some kind of plan from Spurs to raid down their right / our left.

But, having said that, I'm more than happy with that 11 should it be correct.

Result? I might stop saying this soon because I’m starting to bore myself, BUT, this season is particularly difficult to predict as it is…and I often find that the first match back after an international break can be even MORE so.

I’m hoping this isn’t the case, of course, but I seem to recall that we can often look at little ‘out of sorts’ as our lads get back together [after playing for their individual countries] for the first time in around a fortnight. Of course, that goes for opponents too.

I just hope we don’t have a game such as we had the last time we visited postcode N17 back in February 2020 because that game can most-certainly be described as a…“frustrating day at the office”; a game that included…

·         The sending-off of Oleksandr Zinchenko for a ‘second yellow’.

·         A missed penalty by a German (Ilkay Gundogan)!

·         67% possession away from home; 19 shots ‘in anger’ but only around 1/3 of those on target; resulting in 0 goals.

·         And finally, a deflected 2^nd goal by Heung-Min Son to kill us off in a 2-0 defeat.

Very frustrating indeed and I think that illustrates perfectly, in just one game, how our season largely went last-time-round; most certainly in the league at least.

Our hosts certainly have attacking personnel that can hurt you if you blink too long and their team is managed by a fella who likes to smother the opposition in a desperate attempt to stop them scoring. If that combination of defensive tightness and dangerous counter attacking works then it can be a daunting proposition for any visiting side.

They’re in good form too and sit in 2^nd place, just 1 point off the league leaders. A tough evening does indeed lie ahead for us.

But we’re in decent form ourselves and, as I’ve already stated, we have players who should come back ‘buzzing’ from their international ventures. And don’t underestimate the power of a manager extending his contract, especially one of such quality as Pep Guardiola – the players will be lifted by that, I’m sure!

I think it’ll be a crackin’ game and a close one. There might not be many goals if their manager’s plan largely works and with our improved defence also…but they have lost a key defender in Irishman, Matt Doherty, after testing positive for Covid-19.

I am very much swaying towards a draw for this one but I just have a feeling we’ll ‘pip ‘em’ today. 3 points to The Blues.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: Draw

Result: Lost

(Pre-match blog posting from that game)

Expected weather conditions during the game: A very slight chance of some very light rain but it could also easily remain dry for the game. And as far as the temperature goes, 12C / 54F for an early evening KO (5:30pm GMT) in November isn’t bad at all! Even the expected brisk, south-westerly breeze shouldn’t affect play in the fully enclosed, high-sided stadium. Decent conditions for a game of footy.