Prediction results

At the start of every season once the summer transfer window closes, I try to predict how the final league table will look; how we’ll do in the cups and even a league-match result prediction, both at the start of the season and pre-match.

Here’s how I did…

The league table

Prediction…

1^st        Manchester City – Just 1 place out

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2^nd       Liverpool – Just 1 place out

3^rd        Arsenal – 5 places out

4^th        Tottenham Hotspur – 2 places out

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5^th        Leicester City – SPOT ON!

6^th        Manyoo – 3 places out

7^th        Chelsea – 3 places out

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8^th        Everton – 4 places out

9^th        West Ham United – 7 places out

10^th      Wolverhampton Wanderers – 3 places out

11^th      Watford – 8 places out and relegated

12^th      Burnley – 2 places out

13^th      AFC Bournemouth – 5 places out and relegated

14^th      Aston Villa – 3 places out

15^th      Southampton – 4 places out

16^th      Brighton & Hove Albion – Just 1 place out

17^th      Norwich City – 3 places out and relegated

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18^th      Newcastle United – 5 places out and survived

19^th      Crystal Palace – 5 places out and survived

20^th      Sheffield United – A WHOPPING 11 places out and survived

Not so good there really; nowhere near as good as my league predictions from the previous season.

It might be worth noting also, on this occasion, what I wrote at the time, I think…

Notable points about that predicted, final table of 2019/20…starting with us:

Well, I have to say that I was wavering as-to-whether to put us top or second and I’ll go on to give you the reasons for that in the “Any concerns” section soon. It wouldn’t have necessarily have been a bad thing, however; the last time I predicted City to finish 2^nd in the league we went on to win it.

The positives I see for us in addition to having a treble / quadruple-winning squad with the best manager in the land and all the world are, for me…

-       Keepers: We have the mighty Ederson in net and, in addition, a Claudio Bravo who looked a completely transformed player in pre-season. Additionally, we have the very experienced Scott Carson as 3^rd-choice. There should be no worries there!

-       Right of defence: We’ve added the class of Joao Cancelo and, so, with him and Kyle Walker, we’ve got that area well & truly covered!

-       With the addition of class-signing Rodri, we’ve got the defensive midfield slot final sorted; with the Spaniard, Fernandinho plus others in the squad who “can play” in the role for short periods if required.

-       And despite the almost-season-long injury to Leroy Sane, the list of wingers / midfielders should leave anyone who knows their players drooling, which includes a David Silva who continues to do an impression of Benjamin Button; Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, who was absent for most of last season don’t forget, Phil Foden, Ilkay Gundogan, who recently extended his contract, Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling. Wow…

Any Concerns then? Yes…and this is why I almost wobbled in my league table prediction.

-       Have we sorted the left-back slot out? Huffff…well, sort of. I like Oleksandr Zinchenko, I really do…and I’m even more impressed with how Pep has molded him from an attacking midfielder / left-winger to a left-wing back. But he’s still learning for me and when he is up against a REAL, right-sided, attacking quality player; I think he struggles a bit with the juggling of the defensive side of that duel role.

That being the case, we have a recovering Benjamin Mendy who could, of course, break down for a 3^rd time and a recently returned Angelino, who looked ‘well flaky’ with his defensive duties in pre-season…although Guardiola must see something in the youngster if he sanctioned his summer return. Apparently Cancelo “can play” at left-wing back if required.

-       Now for an…”Obvious alert”! The central defence. Yes, something most, if not ALL, Blues are talking about at the moment; even more-so than during the summer transfer window after Vinny left our club.

It’s a severe-looking injury to Aymeric Laporte, following his rather silly, in my opinion, challenge, which was not dissimilar to the one Benjamin Mendy made short after signing for us; an injury that saw him…well, you know the rest. Following “successful surgery”, initial rumors are that the earliest we can expect the Frenchman back is January 2020; meaning he-basically misses over half this season’s fixtures in all competitions, including 8 fixtures between 3^rd December and 1^st January.

It leaves us, therefore, with just 2-senior, recognised central defenders in Nicholas Otamendi, a player who had one eye on the exit door in the summer, and John “sick note” Stones. City fans should be excused for thinking…“Oh dear”.

Any positives we can take out of the situation? Well, as it appeared more likely that we weren’t going to bring in an additional central defender in the summer, a decision I raised an eyebrow over at the time; we were informed that the coaching team were working with Fernandinho to put in some extra practice converting the Brazilian, defensive midfielder into a part-time central defender. Very wise – Fern is a very experienced, defensive-minded player, although, there could be some pace issues from time to time against whippet-type forwards. Apparently Rodri “can play” as a central defender if required too.

Other than that, we have a youngster with some first team experience, in Eric Garcia. Another option I’ve thought of should it get REALLY desperate with injuries / suspension / exhaustion, is Kyle Walker. Whenever we have changed to a ‘back 3’ during the odd game, the England man has played on the right-side of that trio and with Joao Cancelo added to the ranks; we could still maintain the ‘status quo’ in the right-wing back department should Kyle have to ‘slot inside’.

-       Then there’s the attack. This is something I know many City fans have talked about for the last 2 seasons at least, which is the fact that we run our long, 4-season campaign with just 2, recognised strikers. Yes, Raheem Stirling can play there and, to be fair, he’s starting to show much more whenever asked to play more centrally in front of goals. And, yes too; should it be needed, I’ve no doubt some of those afore-mentioned midfielders / wingers could also wreak havoc with opposition defenses as a makeshift striker.

But we’ve already seen, this season, just how important Sergio Aguero is to us – that’s…31-year old Sergio Aguero who has already found himself to be the only striker for the last 2 of our first 4 games; with Gabriel Jesus already out injured. That does give me the wobbles a little bit, if I’m being completely honest.

Having said THAT, though, we do score a hell of a lot from other departments and why wouldn’t we; with the vast amount of creativity we have in our squad?! Pep too is sort of famous for deploying an attacking, 4-6-0 formation when he feels it right to do so.

As for some notable points about the rest:

·         Liverpool will be strong again and it will be a very close finish regardless of who has the crown come May. They will fall foul of VAR, as we seem to be doing at the moment, and I still think our squad is stronger than theirs overall and, so, we’ll see how they cope with absences.

·         Although both can be flakey at the back at times, Arsenal & Spurs should be ‘up there’; with both teams having potent, attacking players and their disposal.

·         I think we’ll see Leicester have a good season – Brendan Rogers is a decent organiser of teams and he has some considerable talent in his squad.

·         Manyoo have talent too but I can see them struggling to string a run of games / form together and should be pleased with a 6^th-place finish; as they attempt to re-build / find their feet once again. Will they, in fact, have the same Manager come the end of the season? Mmmm…

·         I’m sure Frank Lampard will be given a full season, though, but I think they’ll struggle with their 1-year transfer ban in place and as he attempts to put ‘his stamp’ on the squad.

·         At the other end, all I’ll say about Newcastle United is…Steve Bruce. Crystal Palace currently sit 4^th after 4 games but they do so having only scored just 3 and conceded 2. I think we see ‘em drop and drop over time as they struggle to find goals. And although I’d like to see them survive and have-had a really good starting-return to the top league; I can see ‘fighting spirit’ not being enough to keep Sheffield United. I fear a lack of quality against the other sides will, eventually, see them suffer. And if they can keep Pukki fit, I can see Norwich just about surviving their return.

League match result predictions:

Number correct from pre-season: 63.16%

Number correct from pre-match: Just 55.26% in this strange, interrupted season, which included 9 league defeats for us.

The cups

League Cup                -           Predicted quarter finals

2 rounds out and winners again!

F.A. Cup                      -           Predicted that we’d reach the final again and, therefore, possible winners again

1 round out

Champions League     -           Predicted semi-finals.

1 round out

Lyon preview

All-but-one fit & available players for us – let’s get straight to it…

v Lyon

The rather green-looking, Estádio José Alvalade

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game: 9/11).

Fluid 4-1-4-1 / 4-5-1 / 4-6-0:

______________________________________________

 

 

_____________________Jesus____________________

 

___Sterling___________________________Mahrez___

____________De Bruyne_____D. Silva_____________

 

_____________________Rodri____________________

Cancelo_________________________________Walker

_____________Laporte______Fernandinho_________

 

 

____________________Ederson___________________

Subs: Bravo, Zinchenko, Mendy, Garcia, Otamendi, Stones, Harwood-Bellis, Gundogan, Doyle, Foden, B. Silva, Palmer.

What I’m basically going to do, is name the same, predicted line-up as I did before the Real Madrid game, where I got 2 wrong.

Ederson, of course, in net.

I think…THINK, Joao will get another crack at the left-wing back slot and that we might save the pace of Mendy for later on; when legs may be getting a little tired. I might be wrong of course. If I am right though, then the largely right-sided, Portuguese international will make up a ‘back 4’ alongside Aymeric, Fernandinho & in-form Kyle.

Rodders in front of those / occasionally dipping back to ‘swell the defence’ when needed and ahead of him, a fluid 5-man attack containing Kevin, David, who I think will step into this one, Raheem, Riyad to be given a starting go and Gabriel.

I must have missed the rule change last time out that allows 12 – THAT’S TWELVE! – subs in the Champions League now, so this long list is likely to consist of fit again Claudio as reserve keeper. Then we have Oleksandr, Benjamin, Eric, Nicolas, John & Taylor that make up a large contingent of back-up defenders; Ilkay, Tommy, Phil, Bernardo & Cole, similarly so, make up a big group of midfielders & wingers waiting to step in if needed.

Notable absences:

-       Sergio Aguero – Still in Barcelona; still working on his recovery following knee surgery.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

The ‘round pegs in round holes’ phrase has me a little twitchy about not starting Benjamin, should I be right of course, in his natural position on the left of defence / left flank…and that’s despite me-personally not being very convinced about his defensive capabilities. But yeah, that’ll do for me.

Result? Well, I don’t know a hell of a lot about our French opponents but they do-clearly have quality players.

With the French league being abandoned with 10 games to go due to Covid-19; after 28 games played, they did finish a fairly-lowly 7^th and 10 points off a Champions League place; losing 10 and only winning 11 of their 28 league games played. Should we read too much into that? I’m not so sure we should because, as we’ve seen, different players and different teams have come back after the pandemic break in different form.

They did dispatch Italian League champions, Juventus, in the last round to set up this fixture and the break has, apparently, allowed 2 of their better players to recover from long-term injuries and be available for tonight. They also have a player who has done damage to us in the past…and who sounds like an ice-cream.

Tough game? Of course it will be. Close too, I suspect, but I'm going for a City win and probably in 'the 90'.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: N/A

Result: N/A

Expected weather conditions during the game: A very warm day – but only a couple of degrees warmer than parts of Greater Manchester – cools to a welcoming [for the players I’m sure] 70F as the game kicks off. Stays dry and cools slightly further as the game progresses and the sun dips away. A slight North-Westerly breeze might help the players too, if it can get inside the stadium.

Oh, and if we DO get through…

Barcelona 2-8 Bayern Munich! YIKES!

 

New signings – opinion

2-new additions to our squad – here’s what I think.

Ferran Torres

Firstly, what kept irritating me as the links with this young Spaniard got stronger and stronger, was the number of pundits an’ the like who kept referring to him as being…’a replacement for Leroy Sane’. Hey?! You only need a computer or whatever and a very small amount of time to find out that Ferran is largely a right winger…and you only need a memory to recall that Leroy was…not.

Now, of course, he comes with the label, something like, ‘…can also play on the left’, or whatever AND, I’m sure, the plan is to coach him to become, perhaps, a more-rounded player; enabling him to play on the left as easily as he does do on the right; as well as through the middle / ‘just off’.

But I just wanted to scream at these people every time ‘the replacement for…’ tag was mentioned…over and over and over again.

Huff…so, now that I’ve got that off my chest…

I really like the look of him – strong, fast, bags of skill ‘n’ tricks and loves to take on / beat his man (or men, as his videos do demonstrate).

And I’m not just saying this because the player himself has said that he admires and largely models himself on this player; but his style really does remind me of Cristiano Ronaldo. Well, I’m certainly not moaning if he turns out to be as good as…

He’s certainly not shy of saying what’s on his mind, which has been demonstrated of late; with a few ‘parting shots’ at some individuals as he left his clearly-beloved Valencia.

Apparently, he likes dogs.

Really good signing is this - £20.8M plus future add-ons is also a really good price these days for a clearly talented, 20-year old who has just signed a 5-year deal with us. Exciting times for him & us at City, I think. Bienvenidos.

Nathan Ake

Firstly, I’m just gonna ‘copy & paste’ what I put in a blog-posting a few months back…

Finally, in this category, a player who-it-feels-like has been linked with us before he was even born! Nathan Ake is his name. I like him…and I think Pep does, or would, too.

I cannot believe the Dutch international has only just turned 25-years of age in February – he seems to have been playing for 5 years longer than that!

Has spent his entire domestic career in England (tick). Has spent the majority of that time in the Premier League (tick). Has 13-full, international caps for the Netherlands (tick). He’s 25 (tick). His contract has only 2 years to run in June (tick). He can – and quite often has done – played at left-back as well as central defence (tick). He’s very calm and assured and also, just like Dan-Axel Zagadou, reminds me a little of Vincent Kompany (tick).

Now he is only 5’ 11” but, from what I’ve seen, he does ‘get up there’ when needed. Perhaps it’s not his biggest (no pun intended) quality but, then again, I don’t think it’s Pep’s number 1 priority in his central defenders either. Besides, for that side of the defending or attacking corners we have Laporte, Rodders & Fernandinho at least. Nathan is a player, though, I have seen Bournemouth thrown into the opposition box whenever they have a corner themselves, so he can’t be too ineffective in the air, can he?

I would be shocked if we didn’t put in a bid for the dreadlocked defender and, as it’s my last central defender entry; I’ll now say that I believe that we’ll attempt to sign 2 centre-halves in the summer and that Ake will be one attempt, at least. Why 2? Well, we already need to fill the gap left by Vinny and I can honestly see both Nicolas Otamendi & John Stones leaving us in a few months’ time.

Chances of making a bid: 10/10

All I’m gonna add to that is that I found it really quite laughable; the sheer number of pundits who were openly shocked at us signing the top-flight-experienced, international, ball-playing, versatile defender. Seriously, I don’t know if you heard but Jamie Carragher an’ the likes were lining up to scratch their collective, empty heads in confusion about us-possibly signing the Dutch, 25-year old.

Now I’m not saying that we don't still need a more-rough ‘n’ tumble, central defender competing for a place with Aymeric & Nathan – a defender who perhaps likes to get ‘stuck in’ and likes ‘aerial dules’ etc. I think we do. And, in sayin’ that, I think we might have one in Taylor Harwood-Bellis. But Nathan definitely adds some much-needed quality to our centre of defence and I, for one, am very happy to see him at City.

Thanks, as always, for taking the time to read.

2nd leg…164 days later!

That’s gotta be a record, hasn’t it?

v Real Madrid

Etihad Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game which, for me blog-wise, was our game against Watford: 8/11).

Fluid 4-1-4-1 / 4-5-1 / 4-6-0:

______________________________________________

 

_____________________Jesus____________________

 

___Sterling___________________________Mahrez___

 

____________De Bruyne_____D. Silva_____________

 

_____________________Rodri____________________

Cancelo_________________________________Walker

______________Laporte_____Fernandinho_________

 

 

____________________Ederson___________________

Subs: Carson, Zinchenko, Garcia, Otamendi, Stones, Gundogan, Doyle, Foden, B. Silva.

Ederson, of course, in net.

Now here we go – I was gonna put Eric Garcia in the starting line-up; continuing his good partnership with Aymeric. But then…BOOM! The young lad tells his employer that he doesn’t want to extend his contract beyond next season, which basically means he 'wants out' (and wants to go back to his beloved Barca). Pep, understandable, didn’t look pleased when-having to announce that in his pre-match press conference yesterday and although some may have suggested that he might not have started this evening anyway; I’m now dropping him in my predicted 'starting 11'. SO…having been given some game-time on the left flank recently, Joao to fill the left-wing back slot vacated by Benjamin Mendy’s 1-match Euro suspension; Kyle on the opposite flank and I think it’ll now be Fernandinho who partners Aymeric in the middle of our defence (could be well wrong here – we could see Pep deploy 3 central defenders for this one).

Anyhoo…I think we’ll see Rodders as the defensive midfielder and if I’m right with a back-4, I think we’ll see him nip back on occasions to swell the centre of defence when the pattern of play dictates.

An attacking 4…or 5 ahead of him, with Kevin & David in the middle, Raheem on the left, Riyad on the right and Gabriel perhaps not being used RIGHT up front but, instead, floating / rotating with both Raheem & Riyad.

Scott continues to be the back-up stopper to Ed; Oleksandr, Eric, Nicolas & John make up a fairly large, defensive force from ‘the 9’. The remainder of the bench sees 4 midfielders / wide men in the form of Ilkay, Tommy, Phil & Bernardo.

Notable absences:

-       Claudio Bravo – Injured.

-       Benjamin Mendy – Suspended for this game.

-       Sergio Aguero – Still recovering after knee surgery…and still in Barcelona with the Doctors doing so!

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

That looks good to me!

Result? I often find European games so hard to predict – similar to some domestic cup games; form seems to go out of the window on occasions and upsets involving so-called ‘should win / lesser teams’ are aplenty.

On Friday night, we have two top teams both top of their own form league tables and packed with talent. What separates us? Home advantage, albeit with no fans, and a 2-1 lead to us.

It’s gonna be very difficult, of course, and I’m sure they’ll do their very best to supress the likes of Kevin De Bruyne & Raheem Stirling. If that’s part of their plan, they’ve-then still got to find a way of dealing with an in-form and hungry David Silva; not to mention Riyad Mahrez, Gabriel Jesus & support-attacking wing-backs.

I think they’ll score…and I think we will too. I also believe that there’s a reasonable chance that we’ll win on the night as well…but I’m going for a draw on the night and, therefore, a trip to Portugal in a few weeks’ times for the final stage, knockout tournament.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: N/A

Result: N/A

Expected weather conditions during the game: Very warm! For a second Friday on-the-trot, a heat surge from the south sees the 8pm KO time (BST) start at around 73F, which’ll be more like 80+F inside in the stadium I’m sure; following a hot & sunny day in Manchester. Even after the sun disappears behind the largely-empty Colin Bell stand and then Earth’s horizon; it’s not gonna drop below 70F with high humidity predicted and, so, those drinks break may well be welcomed by the players, unless they interrupt a good spell in play by either side.