Wednesday 28 June 2023

Analysing our league fixtures

Trying to predict the outcome of matches can be a tough enough thing to do at the best of times but I think there have been more and more unexpected outcomes and shock results in the last few, fantastic seasons; more so than ever before, generally speaking.

It seems, therefore, a slightly mad thing for me to do when casting my eyes over the calendar of our next season’s league fixtures; trying to summarise where & when we might pick up the most points and where our tougher periods may lie…all said with respect to ALL teams, of course.

It seems even crazier to do this before clubs have finished both strengthening and having their sides weakened as players come & go in the summer transfer window but here goes…

August & September

I don’t know what other City fans might think but I believe we’ve been handed a fairly decent start…possibly with a nod towards some tricky away fixtures if those respective sides start their seasons well.

August

Burnley (A)

Newcastle United (H)

Sheffield United (A)

September

Fulham (H)

West Ham United (A)

Nottingham Forest (H)

Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)

With 3 home fixtures and 4 away then, for now at least, I’ve actually gone for 21 points from a possible 21! A FLYING start from us, should my current predictions ‘hold water’!

October & November

With very few league games over this next 8-½ week period – but with a few cup games thrown into the calendar too, I’m sure – I’m less certain about how well we’ll fare in this, the toughest two, back-to-back months we have coming up, in my opinion.

As we move well into the middle of Autumn and with the Champions League group stage fixtures having already commenced in the final third of September; we face league away trips in these two months to Arsenal, Manyoo and Chelsea. Want some home comforts? Well, there aren’t too many there either; with Brighton & Liverpool being joined by Bournemouth as visitors to the Etihad. That’s 4 from 6 teams who finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th & 6th last season; with both Chelsea & recently-taken-over Bournemouth sure to strengthen and possibly improve too.

I’m so uncertain as to how we might fare in October & November until nearer the time, as squads settle down after both absorbing new talent and dealing with losses, that all I’ll say for now is that if we DO, as I’ve predicted, start the first two months well and then-manage to largely ‘ride the rapids’ in months 3 & 4, with a “good draw” or two mingled with further wins; then we’ll have built a very, VERY solid foundation for the remainder of the season for sure.

December

I’ve put this month on its own because, in comparison to every other month of the season, this one holds the most league fixtures with 7 in total!

I’ve just written about a potentially very difficult couple of months for us, league wise at least. Well, in contrast this month is most-definitely full of “winnable fixtures”, as the phrase goes…with a reminder of what I’ve said with regards to respecting all sides.

Tottenham Hotspur (H)

Aston Villa (A)

Luton Town (A)

Crystal Palace (H)

Brentford (H)

Everton (A)

Sheffield United (H)

Of course, as I type this in June well before we know just how strong sides will look as we enter the 2023 / 24 season, some of those could well look like toughies as we approach the fixture date nearer the time. However, that looks like a month where, should we struggle a little in the previous two months, we can pick up some serious points and gather momentum once more.

What concerns me about this month is the Club World Cup fing, which is to be held in Saudi Arabia in December also – how on EARTH are we to fulfil our domestic fixtures and fit this overseas competition in at the same time?! Send the kids? Unlikely…or not fully at least.

Weird and, like I say, a little concerning with regards to both burn-out and disruption. And not necessarily wanting to look too far ahead nor make assumptions as to where we’ll be in 2025 but I’ve read an article in recent days where FIFA have announced that the 2025 Club World Cup format will include 32 teams played in June and will take place every 4 years thereafter. Nuts!

January & February

In sharp contrast, the following two months consists of “only” six league fixtures; with just two of those scheduled in January. Of course, by then, we have other cup competitions coming into serious play…assuming we’re still ‘in the mix’ by then, of course.

Three at home and three away sees a mixed bag of tricky away games of Newcastle, Brentford, who beat us twice in the league last season albeit it one of those at a time where we’d practically ‘switched off’, league wise and Bournemouth. A completion of these couple of months’ fixtures sees us host Burnley, Everton & Chelsea and so I can envisage us taking at least 14 points from 18 there.

March

The single most difficult month [as opposed to two-difficult, back-to-back months] league wise, in my opinion. Manyoo & Arsenal at home, Liverpool & Brighton away.

By this time, however, we’re usually firing and in full momentum so…“we’ll see”, of course.

April & May

Similar to the opening two months, I think we have a largely favourable, final couple of months.

April

Aston Villa (H)

Crystal Palace (A)

Luton Town (H)

Tottenham Hotspur (A)

Nottingham Forest (A)

May

Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)

Fulham (A)

West Ham United (H)

Spurs away is, of course, the most obvious difficult one out of those eight fixtures – to say we’ve struggled for points on ‘their patch’ in recent seasons would be an understatement. It’s time that changed.

I also have to bear in mind that some of those sides could, by this stage of the season, be scrapping for their very Premier League lives, which of course brings with it its own dangers.

However, in large, that’s another period where we should be looking to take at least 19 points from a possible 24; factoring in the ‘Spurs fing’ plus one possible, struggling side ‘banana skin’ game.

Thank you for taking the time to read – a blog-posting I had no intention of writing until I was sat in front of the PC yesterday morning and simply started typing almost without realising it.

Weird…

Monday 19 June 2023

Season predictions - results

Around the start of every season after the summer transfer window has closed, I try to predict how the final league table will look as well as how we’ll do in the cups as well as league itself.

I also conduct match-by-match result predictions, both at the start of the season and then pre-match.

First of all, here’s that very prediction piece from back in September 2022.

Here’s how I did

Final League Table 2022-23:

1st        Manchester City                    SPOT ON!

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2nd       Arsenal                                   2 places out (had ‘em down for 4th)

3rd        Manyoo                                  2 places out (had ‘em down for 5th)

4th        Newcastle United                  3 places out (had ‘em down for 7th)

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5th        Liverpool                                3 places out (had ‘em down for 2nd)

6th        Brighton & Hove Albion       2 places out (had ‘em down for 8th)

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7th        Aston Villa                             8 places out (had ‘em down for 15th)!

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8th        Tottenham Hotspur              5 places out (had ‘em down for 3rd)

9th        Brentford                              5 places out (had ‘em down for 14th)

10th      Fulham                                   3 places out (had ‘em down for 13th)

11th      Crystal Palace                       1 place out (had ‘em down for 10th)

12th      Chelsea                                  6 places out (had ‘em down for 6th)

13th      Wolverhampton Wanderers 4 places out (had ‘em down for 17th)

14th      West Ham United                  5 places out (had ‘em down for 9th)

15th      AFC Bournemouth               5 places out (had ‘em down for 20th)

16th      Nottingham Forest                3 places out (had ‘em down for 19th)

17th      Everton                                  1 place out (had ‘em down for 16th)

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18th      Leicester City                        SPOT ON!

19th      Leeds United                        8 places out (had ‘em down for 11th)!

20th      Southampton                       8 places out (had ‘em down for 12th)!

Any comments to be had there?

I think getting 2 spot on, 5 either just 1 or 2 places out and then a further 4 just 3 places out sounds pretty decent on the face of it – 11 from 20 within 3 places of where the sides actually finished, in other words. But there are some gaping whoppers in there too, with a good number of 5s / 6s as well as three 8s.

Obviously Arsenal were a lot stronger than I expected and Manyoo too improved a little more than I’d guessed also. I was shocked at what a poor season Liverpool had and, in fact, only a late surge and upturn in form saw them finish as high as they did in 5th!

Newcastle also had a far stronger season than I expected and I think a lot of credit has to go to their manager. Brighton didn’t surprised me really, even though they went on to achieve 2 places better than I had predicted. I hope they keep hold of their manager next season but it will be difficult. If Pep is to make the 2024 / 25 season his last with us, dare I suggest that Roberto might be a candidate to replace him?

Spurs have had a really poor season…and who the ‘eck could have foreseen Chelsea finishing 12th?! 😲 I expect both of those clubs to do much, MUCH better with no European games to “get in the way” next season; especially Chelsea, I’d say.

I think I’ll end this section by saying well done to Forest but even more so Bournemouth, who I had not only as going down but doing so by finishing bottom! I’m pleased to have been proven wrong and, once again, their manager should get a lot of praise…as well as the players too, of course. With shrewd investment from their relatively new owners, they should see themselves as an established, mid-table Premier League side and they try to takes little steps forward.

Looking at our fixtures both pre-season and then pre-match?

Pre-season: 63.16% of results predicted correctly, which is exactly what I got the previous season!

Pre-match: Also 63.16% of results predicted correctly a day or two prior to games. Weird…

As for the cups…

League Cup    -           Predicted the final and, therefore, possible winners.

2 rounds out (knocked out in the quarter final)

F.A. Cup          -           Predicted Quarter final.

2 rounds out (got to the final and won it!)

Champions League     -           Predicted the final and, therefore, possible winners.

SPOT ON!

Finally, I'd like to take this opportunity to say a massive well done to our EDS / Under-23s, our Under 18s / Academy as well as City Women.

The EDS / Under-23 won Premier League 2 by a massive 13 points, as well as having an incredible + goal difference of 49, which was 32-goals better than second placed, Liverpool.

The Under-18s also finished their league campaign champions; finishing 4-points clear of a very strong Sunderland side in second. They also came so close to a place in the F.A. Youth Cup final but were beaten in extra time by Arsenal.

As for the women’s team, I thought they did really-quite-well both taking into account the huge number of injuries I recall them having at the start of the season and considering the very-high standard of their three, main rivals – Arsenal, Manyoo and, eventual league winners, Chelsea. I think I’m right in saying also that they’ve lost a considerable number of star players to other sides in the last couple of transfer windows; particularly to sides abroad.

As well as finishing 4th – joint-3rd on points with Arsenal – and 10 points clear of 5th-placed Aston Villa; they reached the semi-final of the League Cup and quarters of the F.A. Cup. Their ventures into Europe this season ended very early, sadly.

I don’t THINK I’ve missed noting any other achievements our Academy, EDS or Women’s team had last season but I would be happy to be corrected / updated…

That’s it for a short time – it’s been a marathon getting four, rather large, close-season blog-postings out in such a short space of time (glad I did some prep work on two of 'em).

The next time I plan to sit in front of the PC and write about City is likely to be when we bring out our 2nd strip; where I’ll probably do an opinion piece about both that and our home kit, which was released a few weeks’ ago.

We’ll see – I might wait until our 3rd kit is out and do a ‘1 piece fing’ on all three…

 

Sunday 18 June 2023

Where to strengthen and who…

…might be coming in?

It just doesn’t stop, does it? It’s relentless! I know a lot of it is down to the big gap in domestic play last season due to the World Cup but…JEEEZE!

Not only were the 2023/24 fixtures out less than 72 hours after our trophy parade but the transfer window opened the day before THAT and, right now as I begin this piece on Thursday 15th June, we’ve got all sorts of international fixtures being played too!

I supposed I’d better ‘crack on’, then, by looking forward to this-coming season myself; with a blog-posting examining areas of the team where we might need to look at strengthening, as well as who might be joining us in the summer

Goalkeeping department

No additions needed. Of course, it wouldn’t be ideal if we lost both Ederson AND Stefan at the same time (no side in the world can-ever really plan for the possibility of losing both their first and second-choice goalies) but we would still have veteran Scott Carson and going even deeper into our reserves; James Trafford, at the very least, sounds like, from the reports I’ve occasionally heard on local radio, a very promising stopper; with 67 league appearances for on-loan club, Bolton Wanderers, plus however many cups matches he’s competed in too. That’s some serious gametime, albeit at a lower level of course, for someone who isn’t turning 21 until October!

Need out 10? 0

Defence

Starting on the left and I have seriously lost count of the amount of seasons / close seasons where I, along with so many other City fans, have been saying the same thing. Yes, Pep has delivered a masterclass in converting several players into temporary left-wing backs / left-sided defenders - central defenders, right-wing backs and even attacking central midfielders / right wingers have all done their part in that berth! We need a specialist AND, as I’ve bored myself saying, not just one who can attack / overlap / “invert” and get assists etc. but one who knows how to defend too; as other sides increase their arsenal of attacking weapons against us.

Need out 10? Bearing in mind how well other players did in that position for us last season, I’m not going for a ‘desperate 10’…but ‘an 8’ I will not drop below in my assessment.

In the middle? ‘On paper’, it might appear like having John Stones, Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake & Ruben Dias is enough (I’ve assumed that Aymeric Laporte will be leaving us) but with an injury record three of those four have; I feel this is a must in terms of summer recruiting whilst competing for SIX trophies next season (don’t forget, we have the UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Club World Cup to come this season too!).

Need out 10? 10

Here’s a bit of a weird one – the right-hand side of the back-line. Kyle Walker has just turned 33 and, similar to the central defenders, has some injury ‘flare ups’ from time to time; as well as fluctuating form it has to be said also. Do we have a natural back-up replacement? Well, we do have soon-to-be 19-year-old, Rico Lewis; a fine-looking player and one who, I believe, has a good future at City.

And then, of course, we have a similar situation to the left-hand side where Pep seems to be able to adapt certain players to slot into that position; as well as adjusting formations accordingly. But is that enough?

I believe that this is an area that needs looking at too and with Sheffield United apparently ‘sniffing around’ for the England international’s services, if rumours are to be believed as I type this; then perhaps the need is even greater if Kyle fancies returning to ‘his roots’.

Need out 10? 7

Midfielders & wingers

Midfield:

A lot of this comes with the “D” word – depends.

-       Will Bernardo Silva be leaving in the summer?

-       Will Ilkay Gundogan be saying farewell this transfer window also?

-       Will the club – or indeed the player himself, Kalvin Phillips – decide that a quick ‘hello & goodbye’ is the right thing to do?

-       Will, as I’ve recently heard, Cole Palmer go on a season-long loan next season and…

-       …will, as I heard also, James McAtee be primed for some first-team starts this coming season?

If we do lose 4 and gain just one, soon-to-be 21-year-old academy player, then my answer is a most-definite…YESat least two; preferably three new ‘bods’, please City!

But if we keep Bernardo, Ilkay & Kalvin and simply swap Cole for James, then I’m still gonna say “Yes” to-me-wanting a new, additional midfielder but I think I’d be happy with just one new addition; although I’m guessing some Blues would still like to see two and I could fully understand that with the aging legs / injury proneness we have in our ranks.

Need out 10? 10 for me in both scenarios…and then it’s all about “how many”.

Left wing:

I don’t believe we have an issue here. Jack appears to have “arrived” in a City shirt in the last 6 months or so and then we not-only have Phil Foden but others who both can, and have, done a good job in that position.

Need out 10? 0

Right wing:

Here’s an area I believe we need some ‘new blood’. We have Mr ‘Up & Down’, Riyad; Phil, who has played there before and done well, along with a possibly-departing Bernardo…and then a sprinkling of players who have played there too and done okay. Is that good enough if we are to defend titles? I say, categorically, no it’s not.

I’d LOVE to see a talented “flyer” down that flank…and one who has the right attitude & energy as well.

Need out 10? 9

Forwards / Strikers

No additions needed. Even if we were unlucky enough to lose both Erling and Julian for a time, our manger is more than adept to set the side up with a “false 9” or no direct, central forward player whatsoever. We’ve done it before under Pep…and very successfully.

Need out 10? 0

SO…

…who then?

Starting on the left of defence…

A player who has been linked with us in the distant past cropped up in the rumours-media once again this season and I stuck him on my transfer possibilities list to keep him in mind. Alphonso Davies certainly ‘ticks a lot of boxes’ – he’s 22; apparently very athletic, pacy, skilful and as well as being a left wing-back; he’s very comfortable on the left-wing (one recent report suggest that’s his preferred position) as well as inside midfield-left, so that’s the ‘inverted’ box ticked also. Nothing I’ve read seems to refer to his actual tackling ability (that one again 🙄) and from the footage I’ve watched; I’ve not witnessed much of that myself either.

Another bonus is that he’s in the last 2-years of his contract a Bayern.

I’ve referred to putting the player on my ‘transfer possibilities list’ and it’s a document that I keep for a ‘sliding calendar year’, or there abouts. It was quite early on in that last 12 months that he was last mentioned in connection to our club but, as I say, there is enough there for me to suggest that it’s not just a crazy link.

I’m not sure Thomas Tuchel would like to see the Ghanaian-born, Canadian international leave and, therefore, unless we’re REALLY determined to take him and the player is keen for the move also; I think this might be an unlikely one…but not impossible.

A left-sided defender ‘closer to home’ with whom we’ve been linked with more recently is Scottish international, Aaron Hickey. Once again, this is another young (just-turned 21) player who, according to reports, is very versatile; with the addition that he can-also, and has, played on the right-side of defence as well as in midfield. Once again, there’s the ‘inverted option’. At 6’ 1”, he’s also been known to play in central defence.

Additionally, not only has Aaron got international experience with his national side with 10 caps but he-also racked up 47-league appearances for Bologna, as well as-having 26 Premier League appearance for his current club, Brentford. That is quite considerable experience for a just-turned 21-year-old.

When the question was once put to him that he had been likened to both Scotland & Liverpool’s-established left-back, Andy Robertson, he was-apparently keen to play down the comparison so that - along with the fact that he chose to test himself abroad at such a young age - appears, to me at least, that he has a ‘good head on his shoulders’. 👍

With 3-years left on his current deal; according to one report the asking fee would be around £30M which, these days, appears to be a fair one, I think.

The right?

I can’t quite recall when-exactly Benjamin Pavard was linked with us but the fact that his contract is up in just 12-months-time – along with the fact that he’s 27 and a well-established France international – I clearly thought that it was worth monitoring.

An excellent anticipator and ‘link-up man’, apparently, but perhaps another one Thomas Tuchel wouldn’t like to see leave his Bayern side.

The heart of our defence

I can’t help feeling that this one is far more certain than another other defensive players we’ve been linked with.

Once again, this is a fella, Josko Gvardiol, who we’ve been linked with on a number of occasions and he WAS on my list quite some time ago, before being removed when he extended his contract in September 2022; just over a year after joining his current side, RB Leipzig. However, the rumours gained momentum once again and have intensified further recently; most certainly in the last few weeks as the summer transfer window approached.

He looks like a good’n to say the least and according to his profile; he’s another central defender who can-also operate on the left-flank when required to.

Central midfield

A player heavily-linked with us just in the last few weeks has been Chelsea’s Mateo Kovacic. Following the first initial links I, of course, did the “YouTube thing”; having not really followed the Croatian international’s performances and knowing little about his main attributes.

I think this would be a top signing and a very shrewd one. Just-turned 29 and, therefore, just in his ‘early prime years’ along with international, European and Premier League experience aplenty. I see him as a Gundogan-like player; a very professional individual, a workhorse and a good passer who likes to build from deep to aid his side / teammates.

With the 5’ 10” midfielder in the last year of his contract, the reported fee is around the £34M mark which, once again these days, would make for another very astute signing by our club.

Here’s one that I can’t rule out…but I just wonder where he’d fit in with current, established personnel. Declan Rice.

The initial bid from Arsenal of £80M for the West Ham United and England defensive midfielder was apparently turned down and although there’s the ‘add-on thing’ that I think might come into play for whoever manages to grab the 24-year-old’s signature; I believe The Hammers will be looking for at least a £100M overall package.

There’s no way Declan would be happy to come to City and ‘do a Kalvin’ (sorry Kalvin) and especially after a season such as he’s just had; there’s no way also that Rodders would sit out large parts of this season coming. So what would happen if we did grab the services of the London-born player? Well, simply put, Pep would have to ‘do his thing’ on the young England man.

Declan has been known to play for both club & country in a slightly more advanced midfield position OR, should I perhaps say instead, hasn’t always been completely anchored to that defensive role 100% of the time. Those who have watched him more than I have say that he looked very comfortable “risking nose bleeds” higher up the pitch.

So, that would appear to be the solutions then. I think it would be a slightly extravagant, perhaps even indulgent signing but it would be a good’n; a workable one…and most definitely a statement that we’re here to defend our many titles.

If we were looking to get a Pep-type player; one who has shown his previous managers that he’s keen to learn and get better / has a great attitude generally, who is strong in possession, plays on the ‘front foot’ and-who-can split defences open with killer passes; then we should not hesitate in snapping up James Maddison, in my opinion (there have been no links to City for this one, I need to point out – this is a ‘wish list’ player).

Want a couple of bonuses? He’s in the last year of his contract with just-relegated Leicester City and he’s English which, of course, matters squad wise.

I know that in addition to Phil Foden we have the likes of Cole Palmer, James McAtee and Tommy Doyle etc. and we must allow those players the opportunity to work their way into the first team. However, this signing would be, for me at least, an absolute ‘no brainer’.

The Vultures are circling in the form of both Newcastle United & Spurs, apparently…I think we should, at the very least, take flight and joined the formation.

The right wing?

I’ll be honest here, I have absolutely no idea who would be a good, realistic target to go for. I believe, as I’ve already said, that we need far better on the right of our attack but there’s no-one out there that we’ve been linked with in the last 12 months.

Well…there was one and I wanted him. However, Bukayo Saka then ‘put pen to paper’ on a new contract on 23rd May to dash may summer transfer hopes.

I dunno who? I’m happy to take suggestions from anyone…

Thank you, as always, for taking the time.

As soon as possible, I’ll start on - and then release - last season’s predictions results.