Wednesday 19 June 2024

Where do we need to strengthen and who…

…might be coming in?

Goalkeeping department

The word…“depends” is all important for this particular category, I think there’s no doubt.

With Stefan Ortega ‘putting pen to paper’ on a 1-year extension to his current 2-year deal recently, he’s going nowhere. Furthermore, after seeing more gametime last season and putting in some really good displays; the German will be hoping that he's done enough to knock Ederson off his ‘Number 1’ perch. Time will tell on that one.

Speaking of which, there have been question marks and rumours since the end of last season surrounding the Brazilian keeper; in terms of whether he may be tempted to accept a big deal from Saudi Arabia, should that offer come his way.

There’s no doubting that his club manager sees the soon-to-be 31-year-old as his first-choice keeper for both league and European competitions after stating it several times to press staff whenever keeper selection is questioned, so surely there are no club doubts entering Ederson’s head, are there? Are there?

Well…there was allegedly a little petulant rant from the Brazilian international on one of his social media platforms following his forced withdrawal at Spurs after receiving a facial injury; a game where his back-up teammate then came on midway through the second half to claim the Man of the Match award for a terrific performance topped by THAT save he made with his legs when one-on-one with Son Heung-min.

From what I can recall at the time, as praise aplenty was being heaped on the German stopper from all directions, Ederson threw something out there along the lines of, HEY! Don’t forget what I did in that match before I was told I had to leave the field of play!; a decision which caused a never-seen-before, angry reaction from the 6’ 2” man.

Have we seen a side to the fella that we didn’t know existed? Does he not like having his position threatened? I don’t know, is the honest answer, but if he IS twitching for a move, then perhaps it’s more to do with simply wanting a new challenge…or maybe he wants to end his career in the sunshine and on a much-increased wage.

SO…it all depends as I say.

If Ederson stays, the need for a new, additional keeper out 10 is 0.

If Ederson leaves, the need out of 10 is 10.

Defence

Left

How many years have thousands of City fans, myself included, been wanting a specialist left-wing back? I’ve honestly lost count. In that huge amount of time, we’ve seen so many players whose natural positions are ‘anywhere but’ being asked to take up that spot with varying degrees of success; whether that’s a right-wing back, a left-sided attacking midfielder / winger or a central defender who just happens to be largely left footed. Even central / right-sided attacking midfielder / winger, Bernardo Silva, has had a couple of goes there.

Last season was no exception, with new central defender, Josko Gvardiol, being tasked with that seemingly hard-to-fill position; with cover on occasions coming in the form of Nathan Ake, who largely filled that hole the previous season.

But it seems to have mostly worked in the last couple of years. Perhaps not perfectly as a central defender attempts to run up & down the left wing in, what is generally considered to be, the most difficult dual role on the pitch. And if I was to sum up the last two seasons and occupants of the left-wing back slot, then I’d say that Nathan is the better defender but sometimes struggles and, indeed, often stops going forward whenever he gets close to the half-way line. Josko, on the other hand, looks more comfortable when advancing up the pitch.

Are we happy with that going forward into another season? Are we comfortable with those two players acting out the role knowing that back-up player, Sergio Gomez, is likely to leave us before the start of the season? If so, then the answer to my ‘out of 10’ question is “Zero”. As for me…

Need out 10? 8

Right

Kyle Walker doesn’t show any signs of losing his pace / acceleration and even though I’m sure he has to look after himself far more than he ever did just to maintain those levels of fitness & energy; I think he’s got another season in him.

Additionally, we’ve not only seen Manuel Akanji do a half-decent job there but John Stones too; although the latter to a slightly lesser degree I think. Then, of course, we have natural right-wing back, Rico Lewis; although the 19-year-old has stated recently that he would prefer to progress his game further up the pitch into midfield.

Need out 10? 0

Centre

On the face of it, having John Stones, Josko Gvardiol, Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake & Ruben Dias screams, No! We don’t need another centre-back”. I get it and I agree.

However, in the interest of balance and giving some ‘food for thought’; if we put a magnifying glass over those players that I’ve just mentioned, then there’s a reasonable case for dipping our toe into the transfer market to find a young, good central defender…and one with a bit of pace too, would be nice.

·         John Stones – Age: Just-turned 30. When John’s body breaks down all sorts of injury issues, both related and seemingly-unrelated, appear to ‘flare up’ throughout the rest of season. And with him turning 31 just after next season finishes, that’s not going to be an improving picture in the years ahead, I would suggest.

·         Josko Gvardiol – Age: 22-½. Has played in central defence for his previous clubs and does so for his national side. However, he has yet to be seen in that position in a City shirt so, in some ways and certainly under Pep, the Croatian international remains an ‘untested element’.

·         Manuel Akanji – Age: Almost 29. A very good defender indeed…and a bargain buy in the summer of 2022. Has a few errors in him but show me a player who doesn’t have a slip-up from time to time.

·         Nathan Ake – Age: 29-½. Every bit as good a defender I thought he would be before we signed him in the summer of 2020. Usually has one, perhaps two mini-injury breakdowns per season and, therefore like John, that’s not going to improve / needs to be expected / ‘factored in’.

·         Ruben Dias – Age: Just turned 27. Good defender and a good organiser / leader. However, I have said this in a recent post; the Portuguese international often leaves me with the feeling that he’s playing through some pain and that he’s in a constant battle to avoid a repeat of his 2021-22 double hamstring injury season; where he then had to have his return time properly managed at the very start of the 2022-23 campaign. This ‘game management’ proved instrumental for the 6’ 1” defender, as he went on to feature in most of our games that treble-winning season. However, for all his good attributes, he does lack pace and is sometimes caught chasing the heels of an opposing attacker. Last season, despite never being officially declared as "injured" and in sharp contrast to the previous season, there were 10-league games where he either didn’t feature at all or played just 22 minutes or less.

Average age of our central defence: 27.6, with some ongoing injury concerns surrounding 3 out of 5 of our central defenders.

Some City fans might argue that now is the time to make a small investment towards the next generation of central defenders.

Additionally, let’s not forget and as I’ve just mentioned, one of those central defenders is forever being used in the left-wing back position. Therefore, if we hit a not-unrealistic scenario where, say, one is injured and one is suspended or two are sidelined with injuries; with one being used on the left of defence we’re then down to our ‘bare bones’ / last resort in the middle with no central defensive cover on the bench.

I know you can’t plan for every scenario but you can see why some City fans might look at this position from that angle.

Callum Doyle

Of course, we have seen Kyle Walker fill in on the right-side of central defence for both club & country and Rodri has played there too…but then who would cover for Rodders at this moment in time? Plus, of course, there’s the EDS lads to ‘dip into’.

Better informed City fans than I, with regards to our reserves, could tell you better I’m sure. But what I have noticed with the defenders that we’ve loaned out season after season, is that Callum Doyle has amassed the most games; with the England Under-21 international racking up 94 League 1 & Championship league games in 3 seasons. That says a LOT for a lad who doesn’t even turn 20 until October. Should Manchester born Callum perhaps be kept around the first team squad this season?

Need out 10? 5

Midfielders & wingers

Midfield:

“Strike early and strike first” [in the transfer market] were the words that came immediately to mind when I was thinking about our attacking central midfield department.


If Kevin De Bruyne is to stay with us for another season – and I’d like to think that he is - then this is surely his last with us. I don’t think his body can take much more of what is expected of him both in the Premier League and under the very demanding Pep Guardiola. Therefore – and I think it is VITAL that we do this now – we need a next generation Kev-type player. Of COURSE we’ve got the very impressive Phil Foden but at the moment, we have the much-needed luxury of both Kevin & Phil in addition to Bernardo Silva and whether change is coming in the next few weeks or in 11 months’ time; at some point we’ll have “just” Phil and possible Bernardo.

What I mean is, Kovacic is no world class creator / attacker and from what I’ve seen [briefly] of Matheus Nunes, I won’t be holding my breath for him to ‘click into gear’ either.

As for Bernardo Silva, if his final destination dream-plans are still Barcelona, then he’ll be going nowhere. Why? Well, if Barca’s recent claims that they can’t raise £25M to buy Joao Cancelo from us then what hope do they have of prising Bernardo away from us?

Still, I think this transfer window is the time to strike and get a 25 / 26-year-old, world class creator / attacker to begin the process of handing over the reins with Kevin.

Moving away from the attack…here’s a ‘no brainer’. Who needs more help / cover the most in our side? Who is, arguably, our ‘prize asset’? If your answer is Rodri then I would agree.

If, as I suspect but don’t know for sure, it is decided in the summer that neither Mahamadou Susoho or Maximo Perrone are ready to step up to be Rodri’s regular respite teammate, then we simply must dip into the transfer market this summer; whether that’s a full purchase or someone who fancies a season-long loan with us.

Need out 10? Defensive midfield 10, creative / attacking midfield 10.

Left wing:

I think we have so many wide options, both established regulars and highly talented youth coming through, that we need not concern ourselves. If, I suppose, we were to lose Jack in the summer should both he and the club decide that it’s best for the England international career-wise, then I still wouldn’t be overly concerned.

However, I suppose also if that scenario does occur and we want to ‘stay ahead of the Joneses’, then it wouldn’t do any harm for us to sniff around for another talented left-winger.

Need out 10? If Jack stay 0, if he goes 3.

Right wing:

No need whatsoever, in my opinion.

Need out 10? 0.

Forwards / Strikers

Not only do with have Erling Haaland; not only do we have Julian Alvarez but we also have a manager who can, and has quite expertly, set his side up to play without a ‘number 9’.

Need out 10? 0.

SO…

…who then?

Starting in goal…

I have no idea who would want to come in to be Stefan’s back-up / potential domestic cup keeper should Ederson decide to leave us in the summer. We have been recently linked with a summer move for Everton’s 16-year-old, Latvian descent / England Under-17 international, Douglass Lukjanciks, but I’m certain that would be a signing for the future, should it happen. Suggestions are welcome…

Left of defence?

The only link that I’ve taken at all seriously is a Chelsea left-wing back who has just returned from a loan spell at Borussia Dortmund called, Ian Maatsen. He’s just-turned 22 and the Dutch Under-21 international has just 2 years remaining on his contract. He has 12 Premier League games to his name at Chelsea; is well travelled / experienced and was used a lot whilst on loan at both League One and Championship level, as well as 16 games in the Bundesliga. Right age, decent experience already, as I say, and shouldn’t cost a fortune. Other than that, I’m happy to take other suggestions…

The right?

Not needed.

The heart of our defence

If we are to dip into the transfer market to find a part-ready, young defender to mould for the future then I can only suggest Everton’s Jarrad Branthwaite with whom, along with several other clubs, we have been linked. However, an almost 22-year-old, English central defender with 3 years remaining on his contract is going to cost some serious pennies and rumours are that The Toffees have already rejected one, possibly two suggested-price approaches from Manyoo.

Central midfield

For defensive midfield, one decent suggestion would be Bayern Munich’s, German international, Joshua Kimmich. There’s a double bonus too.

1. He only has 1-year left on his current contract.

2. Arguably, right-wing back is his more-usual position and, therefore, is decent cover / potentially a replacement for Kyle one day, at the age of 29-½ (sorry Rico).

I do have a nagging issue with this possibly signing, however, and it’s with regards to doubts about his ability when faced with real attacking pace. I know we’re talking about Vinicius Junior here but the Brazilian left-winger / forward apparently tore strips off Joshua about a month ago in the semi-final of the Champions League.

As for attacking midfield, I really like the look of Spanish international Dani Olmo. Yes, I’ve done the YouTube thing 🙄. But I like to think that I’ve watched enough of these to pick out ‘the duds’ and have dismissed many players; following so called, “strong links”.

Dani looks every bit a Kev-type player – excellent link-up play / creator; intelligent passer and, just like De Bruyne, passes the ball into the net whenever he fancies the chance of a goal himself. Around £50M is the apparent asking price, which I think is a clause in his contract that can be activated after the Euros and is valid up to the end of July.

Another recent link, as some of you are sure to have heard, is Bayer Leverkusen’s, Florian Wirtz; although I’m guessing that the German international might want to stay at least one more season with the club who have just won the Bundesliga.

The left wing?

20-year-old Brazilian, Savio, of City Football Group (CFG) club, ES Troyes AC has been the one most linked with a move to Manchester; after spending a season in La Liga on loan at CFG club Girona FC. He’s been lighting up games by all accounts. Troyes and their fans are apparently not very happy with this potential transfer nor with the CFG association in general. In fact, they want out of the United Arab Emirates group of clubs. Oh dear…😬

SSC Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is another City link that appeared in the last 6 months or so but it sounds like he’s locked in a battle with his employers about a potential move and his transfer fee. I don’t think all is well between the player and club and this one would cost considerably more than Savio.

The right wing?

Not needed.

Forwards / Strikers?

Not needed.

In summary:

·         1 keeper but hopefully not, hey?

·         The usual left-wing back debate continues and, therefore, who knows…

·         There’s a half-argument for 1 additional, young, half-ready-made central defender.

·         1 defensive midfielder to help Rodders, should we not have someone to promote from within.

·         1 possible left-winger.

·         And finally, one creative / attacking central midfielder in my humble opinion.

6 new first team faces, maximum, but 3 is more likely…or perhaps we won’t see any new, first-team names joining us at all; a suggestion I’ve seen in several, online sources in recent days.

As always, thank you for taking the time to click on and read, especially these close season pieces that tend to be quite lengthy.

Saturday 8 June 2024

Season predictions - results

Around the start of every season after the summer transfer window has closed, I try to predict how the final league table will look as well as how we’ll do in the cups.

I also conduct match-by-match result predictions, both at the start of the season and then pre-match.

First of all, here’s that very prediction piece from September 2023 (click this link if you wish to see it).

Here’s how I did

Final League Table 2023-24:

1st        Manchester City                    SPOT ON!

-------------------------------------------------

2nd       Arsenal                                   SPOT ON!

3rd        Liverpool                                1 place out (had ‘em down for 4th)

4th        Aston Villa                             4 places out (had ‘em down for 8th)

-------------------------------------------------

5th        Tottenham Hotspur              2 places out (had ‘em down for 3rd)

6th        Chelsea                                  SPOT ON!

-------------------------------------------------

7th        Newcastle United                  SPOT ON!

-------------------------------------------------

8th        Manyoo                                  3 places out (had ‘em down for 5th)

9th        West Ham United                 3 places out (had ‘em down for 12th)

10th      Crystal Palace                       4 places out (had ‘em down for 14th)

11th      Brighton & Hove Albion       3 places out (had ‘em down for 8th)

12th      AFC Bournemouth               1 place out (had ‘em down for 13th)

13th      Fulham                                   2 places out (had ‘em down for 11th)

14th      Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 places out (had ‘em down for 16th)

15th      Everton                                  3 places out (had ‘em down for 18th)

16th      Brentford                               6 places out (had ‘em down for 10th)

17th      Nottingham Forest                2 places out (had ‘em down for 15th)

-------------------------------------------------

18th      Luton Town                           2 places out (had ‘em down for 20th)

19th      Burnley                                 SPOT ON!

20th      Sheffield United                   3 places out (had ‘em down for 17th)

Any comments to be had there?

As you can see, I didn’t think there were many or even ANY surprises, really, in the top-7. I suppose being 4 places out with Villa does suggest a little shock and, in hindsight, perhaps I should have given them more credit for a higher finishing position than 8th. I think I simply thought that some of the teams around them would be a bit stronger than the Villans.

Speaking of which, I know I got Chelsea ‘spot on’ with my predicted finish of 6th but for a long, long time I looked WAY off and only a late, really good surge of positive results saw them thrust up the table. In fact, they finished the season the 3rd-best form side. Despite that, in the end as we all now know, it couldn’t stop the club and their manager parting company. Funny ol’ game…

There weren’t too many surprises elsewhere for me and I think it’s about the best predicted season I’ve ever had, with regards to the league table at least. However, a big standout miss is Brentford who finished 9th in the previous season. They became a tough outfit to face on their day that season and they earnt the respect of a lot of fans of other teams.

So, I saw them having a similar season to the previous one but it just wasn’t to be. In addition to banned striker Ivan Toney; something was missing in the season just gone and at one point, about two-thirds of the way into the season, they were sinking like a rock and in real danger of getting dragged down into a relegation scrap. Thankfully for them, some teams below / around them couldn’t buy a win; others were having points deducted and they managed a few wins themselves in the final few weeks.

As you can see, I wasn’t at all shocked about seeing Luton & Burnley face the drop. However, having already had Everton down to join them BEFORE any of us knew they were about to face a points deduction; I became even more convinced that they would be playing their 2024-25 league football in the Championship. Huge respect, then, to Sean Dyche and his team of players for what they achieved on the pitch while a tornado was swirling around them off it.

Looking at our fixtures both pre-season and then pre-match?

Pre-season: 68.42% results correct.

Pre-match: 73.69% results correct.

Once again, I think that’s about the best I’ve achieved over the years of doing this season prediction piece.

As for the cups…

League Cup    -           Predicted quarter final.

2 rounds out (knocked out in the 3rd round)

F.A. Cup          -           Predicted Quarter final.

2 rounds out (got to the final but lost )

Champions League     -           Predicted the final and, therefore, possible winners.

2 rounds out (got to the quarter-final but lost on penalties)

Not so good with my cup predictions this season. 🤷

Thank you for taking the time to read and, as is often the case, this piece does seem like it’s late being published. This is usually due to me first writing my very long players & manager ratings piece, which is then often followed by a week’s holiday.

Next up is likely to be a piece on our new kits, once all-3 have been released; unless there’s something particularly big worth commenting on City-wise…or whether I fancy dipping my typing fingers into the world of the England men’s football team and the Euros.