Predictions results

Just after the start of the season - after the incoming & outgoing, summer transfer windows have closed – I sit down and attempt to predict how our season will end. I also try to guage how our Premier League competitors will fair in the league.

 

Along with some ‘other stuff’, here are the results…

First of all, my league place finish predictions…

(Link to September’s prediction blog-posting)

1^st        Manchester City – SPOT ON!

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2^nd       Liverpool – SPOT ON!

3^rd        Chelsea – SPOT ON!

4^th        TottenhamHotspur – SPOT ON!

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5^th        Manyoo – (6^th) – Just 1 out!

6^th        Arsenal – (5^th) – Just 1 out!

7^th        Everton – (8^th) – Just 1 out!

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8^th        Fulham – (19^th) – Oh dear…11 places out.

9^th        WolverhamptonWanderers – (7^th) – Just 2 out.

10^th      Watford (11^th) – Just one out!

11^th      AFC Bournemouth – (14^th) – Just 3 out.

12^th      Leicester City (9^th) – Just 3 out.

13^th      West Ham United (10^th) – Just 3 out.

14^th      Newcastle United (13^th) – Just 1 out!

15^th      Southampton (16^th) – Just 1 out!

16^th      Crystal Palace (12^th) – 4 out.

17^th      Burnley (15^th) – Just 2 out.

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18^th      Huddersfield Town (20^th) – Just 2 out and drop predicted.

19^th      Brighton & Hove Albion (17^th) – Just 2 out!

20^th      Cardiff City (18^th) – Just 2 out and drop predicted.

Hey…not flippin’ bad or what?! Especially the top 7! Chuffed with that.

Now for the cup predictions & results for our very own club.

League Cup:

Predicted – Quarter finals.

Achieved – Final (& winners)!

2 rounds out.

F.A. Cup:

Predicted – Final.

Achieved – Final (and won it)!

SPOT ON!

Champions League:

Predicted – Quarter final.

Achieved – Quarter final.

SPOT ON!

And also…

At the same time, I do a W / D / L prediction for each of our games – one ‘pre-season’ (when those same transfer windows have closed) and the other is a pre-match; different because I can then look at current form. Here are those results…

-       Pre-season match result prediction: 71.05% correct.

-       Pre-match result prediction: 84.21% correct.

Empty seats

Now, of course, this isn’t a prediction but it is something regular readers might remember me-doing each year (and all of this record keeping isn’t a quick job, let me tell you!).

What is it and why do it?

Huhhhh…well, as I say each season in order to explain, as our wonderful football club got more & more successful, winning more & more silverware I noticed, more & more, that Manyoo fans (not exclusively as band-waggon jumpers / fans of other teams that I know locally joined in) started on the “empty seats” jibe at us.

Although I could clearly see these unoccupied, flip-up chairs at the Etihad I just thought, I bet the difference between us & Manyoo isn’t “all that” over a full season…and certainly not enough to keep bleating on about it much as they did and still do.

And do you know what, the results have mostly shown that very thing to be the case. In fact, there was one season in recent years where…guess what? The team from Trafford had more empty seats over the whole season and in all competitions than we did!

Anyway, here’s the results of 2018/19 (and explanations where needed).

Manyoo’s capacity:

74,994 in every competition.

Empty seats in all competitions: 36,690

Least empty seats in a game: 438 v AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League.

Most empty seats in a game: 19,767 v Derby County in the League Cup.

Manchester City capacities:

55,097 for league & domestic cup games, 53,000 for Champions League.

Empty seats in all competitions: 90,562

Least empty seats in a game: No empty seats v Spurs in the Champions League (*see below)

Most empty seats in a game: 25,582 v Burton Albion in the League Cup.

(* The Spurs game actually saw 348 seats filled over the apparently-allowed capacity for Champions League games of 53,000).

Difference between both clubs all season and in all competitions: 53,872 more empty seats at the Etihad than at Old Trafford all season and in all competitions.

As I say most seasons, a difference over a whole season worth bleating on about? And what about their 36,690 empty seats for a club whose fans often say they, “…fill their stadium every week”. Well, clearly not…

Anyhow, these are the figures from last season that I like to quote:

·         1 – The position we finished in the league.

·         3 (or 4) – the number of trophies we won.

·         5 – The number of places we finished in the league above our empty seat, sabre-rattling neighbours.

·         32 – The number of points we finished ahead of them; improving a LOT on 19 the season before.

·         4 – The number of times we went to Wembley (excluding games where Spurs were using it as their home ground).

·         98 – The number of points we achieved in the league last season.

·         198 – The number of league points we’ve amassed in the last 2 seasons!

·         0 – The number of times we changed our manager in the season-just-gone.

·         0 – The number of trophies they won.

And from Manchester City themselves just this morning…

·         169 goals in all competitions, which is a new record for a top-flight, English side.

·         6-0 – Biggest win in a cup final for over 100 years, equalling the all-time record too.

·         10-0 – Biggest ever semi-final aggregate win.

·         32 – Premier League wins for one player, Ederson; equalling our own, previous record.

I’m sure there are more we could think of from the season just gone; a season that followed an amazing record-breaking one the year before!

Thank you, as always, for taking the time to absorb all of that.

3…is the magic number.

Some might argue that we already have 3 trophies, having won the Community Shield and that debate will go on and on and on. I’m easy with either and I’m just enjoying this wonderful time in general and this season’s marvellous achievements so far.

v Watford.

Wembley

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from starting line-up in the last game: 10/11).

Fluid 4-5-1 / 4-3-3:

___________________Aguero_____________________

Sane____________________________________B. Silva

__________D. Silva_____________De Bruyne________

___________________Gundogan___________________

Zinchenko________________________________Walker

____________Laporte__________Kompany___________

_____________________Ederson____________________

Subs: Muric, Danilo, Stones, Fernandinho, Mahrez, Stirling, Jesus.

There’s a good chance I could slip from recent 9s & 10s out of 11 in my ‘starting 11 predictions’ but what I’m suggesting here is a little shuffle from Pep for this game; respecting the opposition, the competition and realising, of course, the immense opportunity ahead to be the first English men’s football team to complete the domestic treble (or quadruple)…but ALSO rewarding some players who missed / largely missed the final league game of the season last week.

So…

Ederson in net.

I think the back-4 will remain the same also, with Oleksandr & Kyle either side of Aymeric & Vincent.

I think we’ll see Ilkay start again too as the deeper-lying midfielder but, this time, with David joined by the returning Kevin, who should by now have had enough ‘getting back up to speed’ time after his latest injury setback. Either side of that trio, I think Leroy will be given a ‘Thanks for your patience / understanding’ start on the left flank where he should enjoy the open spaces, with Bernardo in his arguably most effective area on the right.

Sergio to be the lucky recipient of all that creativity ‘up top’.

Aro the reserve stopper; Danilo & John the only ones on the side as recognised defenders. I’m sure Fernandinho will be part of ‘the 18’ and I’m guessing, having-had just 2-full days training up to yesterday, that any minutes on the pitch will come via a substitution. Riyad, who had a much better game last weekend, Raheem & Gabriel provide a frightening array of attacking threat from the side.

Notable absences:

-       Claudio Bravo – Travels…but not selected.

-       Benjamin Mendy – Injured.

-       Nicholas Otamendi – Not selected (and could be getting twitchy for a summer move with a lack of playing time this season and most certainly of late).

-       Fabian Delph – Not selected (and unlikely ever to be again for Manchester City, I would say).

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Against any pacey attack – and, let’s face it, most attacks have some pace in them somewhere across the line; even if it’s not the ‘centre forward’ – I will always be a little twitchy with the older legs of Vinny ‘in there’, especially in the wider spaces the Wembley pitch offers. Would I pick John or Nicholas instead for that reason? Probably not given our skip’s fine form and other attributes that can keep him and the team safe / get him out of trouble. As long as Ilkay & Aymeric look after any “pace issues” I’m fine with that.

I’m also fine with the other 10 and hope that both Kyle keeps his head and recent form going and that Kevin doesn’t OVER do it and lasts nearer ‘the 90’.

Result? Do NOT take these for granted. That’s both my message and one, I hope, Pep will have told his buoyed players.

I watched the Watford v Wolves semi-final as it was a match that intrigued me – one team, Wolves, with excellent organisational and defensive capabilities but, sometimes, lacking REAL firepower; while Watford are much more skilful and pacey in their attacks with goals likely from a number of sources BUT, who, can be quite vulnerable at the back a lot of the time.

Even when The Hornets went 0-2 down to the Midlands club, I just got a feeling that they had it in ‘em to bounce back which, of course, they did to face us. And, of course, it’s the latter set of attacking qualities that we’re facing this evening.

As I’ve already stated, this is why we need Ilkay to be ‘on his guard’, should he start…or might be the reason my predicted 11 is off and we’ll see a return from injury of Fernandinho. It’s definitely something we need to be mindful off, especially with a ‘pumped up’ Troy Deeney spearheading their attack.

But while I’ve gone on long enough about the threat they pose and potential issues we might have in our rearguard, of course they’ll be looking at the attacking 8 of Oleksandr, Kyle, Ilkay, David, Kevin, Leroy, Bernardo & Sergio and might wonder how the HELL they’re gonna keep ‘em out, let alone get the ball for a sustained period in order to generate their own form of assault!

Could be a crackin’ game!

I’m going for a ‘domestic 3’ (4) trophy, City win today.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: N/A

Result: N/A

Expected weather conditions during the game: Little chance of rain in an overcast sky; hardly a breeze and a pleasant 17C / 63F. We might even see the sunshine towards the end of the game and certainly as fans make their way home from HA9.

Hyperlinks to be completed later - I'll miss the flippin' kick off releasing this blog-posting in time at this rate!