Defeat springboard?

I know it’s almost a cliché but that ‘car crash’, ‘bad night at the office’ performance against Wigan last Monday night just might give us an extra level of determination against Arsenal in the League Cup Final tomorrow afternoon. 

 

Well done to Wigan for a dogged display and victory…but shame on the percentage of antagonistic Wigan “supporters” who goaded the away fans rather than just celebrate their fine victory and progression to the F.A. Cup quarter final. Shame on our host club also for not ensuring that there were nearly enough Police and/or stewarding…or that they were all in place in time at the end of the game.

 

In my opinion, action needs to be taken against both identified “fans” and Wigan Athletic FC…but I’m guessing neither will happen to satisfaction. 

 

Long-standing City fans will know what I mean when I say that not long into that game, it just ‘had that feel’ of a game that wasn’t going to go our way, no matter what we tried or what personnel was chosen in ‘the 11’ against the League 1 side. Slightly off passing, a bagful of missed chances and a sending off all sounded the alarm bells as the result became almost inevitable for those with the same ‘City spider sense’ as I have developed over the many years. 

 

I know I said that I probably wouldn’t be doing a pre-final Blog posting but following one, very sad family loss in midweek; we received a little respite regarding another matter yesterday and, SO, it’s given me a little time to focus on tomorrow's game.

v Arsenal.

Wembley

However, no further waffle and straight to it with a predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from starting line-up in the last game: A really poor, 5/11).

Fluid 4-5-1 / 4-1-4-1 / 4-3-3:

____________________Aguero____________________

Sane___________________________________Sterling

___________D. Silva__________De Bruyne__________

__________________Fernandinho__________________

Zinchenko_______________________________Walker

____________Otamendi______Kompany___________

_____________________Bravo___________________

Subs: Ederson, Danilo, Laporte, Foden, Gundogan, B. Silva, Jesus.

As it has been throughout this competition, it’s Claudio who has the gloves for this one.

With our choices at left-back reduced, to some degree, I think we’ll see Pep selecting Oleksandr for this one and why not; he’s performed very well at home and in the Premier League, as much as I’ve seen him anyway. Nicholas a certainty to get his place back for this game...and would it be a risk to put Vinny in there alongside him? I think it is. We could lose him early on; upset the side and use-up a sub too early. But I can see out manager giving him this one for several reasons and if he can stay injury free and is ‘up to speed’ on a big pitch then that partnership can be a flippin’ good one in the heart of our defence. Kyle on the right of those.

Fernandinho to act as his usual anchor in front of those; both ‘helping to protect’ and 'offering support' of colleagues ahead of him. He's been immense and 'key' to us this season.

Those ahead of him are likely to be, Leroy, who often seems to take his time to ‘bed back in’ following injury and, which, is proving to be the case again in recent weeks, I think. However, I think Guardiola will want him on the left flank for this one and with space to exploit. Over on the other side – and despite talk of a doubt due to a muscle niggle – is likely to be Raheem. I don’t believe for one second that he has an issue and, instead, I think he has been given some ‘fine tuning’ lessons by Pep and his team behind the scenes ahead of this one. In between those is probably one of the best midfield ‘combos’ in the world. Let’s hope the 'David & Kevin show' is in full flow on Sunday!

Ahead of those is, of course, Sergio. Shooting boots on fella!

Ederson steps aside and to the side for this game and I think we’ll only see Danilo & Aymeric as defensive change options from the bench. Why? Well I just think that Pep will want to put as many 'game changers' on the bench as possible and, for that, I’ve gone for Phil, Ilkay, Bernardo & the returning Gabriel (I nearly went for Brahim ahead of Phil but Jesus fills that role option from 'the 7').

Notable absences: Benjamin Mendy (continues rehab following injury / surgery) John Stones (not selected / doesn’t appear fully ready following time out with injury & illness) & Fabian Delph (suspended for the first of 3 games).

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

No. If you want to be serious about winning things – especially at this stage…a FINAL – then you pick your best-available players. Ederson is our best keeper.

I’m not saying that Claudio has done anything wrong this season – and I know we have another ‘loyalty factor’ situation with regards to our keeper choice for another final – but I think I’d struggle to find one City fan who didn’t believe that our Brazilian is FAR better than our Chilean and not only that, but…actually improves the confidence of our team’s back-4 too.

And, no again. I’m not sure I would risk Vinny from the start – a player who will, no doubt, play out of his skin with pride in possibly his last-ever, domestic final for Manchester City and who, therefore, runs the risk of overstretching early on, as we’ve seen him do so many times before ‘for the cause’. I’d stick Laporte in there and have ‘our skip’ on the bench.

Other than that, I’m so very happy, as Pep would say…

Result? There’s no doubting that our opponents have quality players and ones that can inflict damage if the opposition isn’t on their ‘A game’ and they have added a certain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to their strike force too (played 2 scored 1 so far for this new club). They have a manager too with plenty of experience in this country and of domestic finals in our ‘green & pleasant’.

But, similar to Leicester and Chelsea of late, you just don’t know which Arsenal you’re going to get – one that can be devastating in their passing and attacking threat or one who looks disjointed in midfield and so very fragile at the back. They’re not well & truly outside of the ‘top 5’ and 27 points behind us in the league, in February, for nothing…

Of course it’ll be tough and I recon they’ll score…possibly twice. But I can just see us ‘turning it on’ big time tomorrow afternoon / early evening and coming away with Pep’s first trophy in England. A City win.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: N/A

Result: N/A

Expected weather conditions during the game: What a lovely day for a game of footy…if not a little cold for the seated fans. Unbroken sunshine, 4 or 5C and with a nagging & cutting, 13mph, Easterly wind.

Blog announcement.

Hi folks.

 

After some considerable family trauma late on yesterday, there MAY well not be a pre-match Blog posting prior to the League Cup final game against Arsenal this coming Sunday and possibly not for the few games that follow either. I didn't even get to see the second half of yesterday's F.A. Cup defeat to Wigan Athletic and didn't know the score until the early hours of this morning!

 

I will see - it's still very early days with regards to all that has happened and still is happening...

Striking the right balance at Wigan.

With the final of the League Cup up next just 6 days after this fixture and with some players just returning from injury; this is both a time to give some stars a rest whilst, at the same time, certainly not underestimating our hosts and ensuring that we reach the quarter final of the F.A. Cup. 

 

Big decisions to make and that’s why Pep is paid above ‘living wage’…

v Wigan Athletic

DW Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from starting line-up in the last game which, for me Blog-wise, was the game against Leicester City): 10/11).

Fluid 4-5-1 / 4-3-3:

___________________Nmecha____________________

Diaz____________________________________Sterling

__________D. Silva___________De Bruyne__________

_________________Fernandinho__________________

Zinchenko________________________________Danilo

____________Laporte__________Stones____________

____________________Ederson____________________

Subs: Bravo, Walker, Delph, Otamendi, Gundogan, B. Silva, Aguero.

Having done quite well in recent games guessing our Manager’s starting 11, I could be WELL wrong with this one! However, ‘neck firmly stuck out’ on this one, here’s my thinking / latest attempt to get into Guardiola’s head…

Ederson is in net because, I think, the League Cup final on Sunday-week goes to Bravo.

An almost new-look defence, in many ways I think we’ll see, with Oleksandr, who took no part at all in last Tuesday’s Champions League game, coming back in on the left of the back-4. Likewise, Aymeric; John to ‘get some game time’ on his return from illness & injury and, I think also, we’ll see Danilo being given a rare start on his preferred right-side.

Fernandinho is likely to have to go again and I think will be included in a strong ‘midfield 3’, with David & Kevin who both shared 93 minutes in Switzerland and, so, should have ‘enough in their tanks’ to start this one 6 days after returning to England. If I’m right and the scoreline allows, I think we’ll then see both of those substituted to protect them for our impending Wembley clash with Arsenal. David, I think, would however benefit from this outing after a period of time out with injury and I think we need this ‘dynamic duo’ to help support what I’m coming to next…

As I’ve already stated, I could be well wrong here…but I think we might see Brahim start on the left flank (a very young flank if I’m correct), with Raheem on his more-comfortable-looking right, having only played 57 minutes last Tuesday.

Neck stretched out to its fullest extent? I’m going for Pep to start Lukas up front. Why? Well we only have one striker available at the moment, in Aguero, and our Argentine battleship needs a flippin’ break, especially before such a crucial clash in London next weekend. Of course, our Spanish boss could go with a ‘ghost striker’ in the form of an advanced midfielder (perhaps Brahim with someone else on the left wing?) and in a 4-6-0 formation. But…this is what I’m going with for this prediction.

Claudio on the side as insurance for Ederson; Kyle, Fabian (what a shock return in midweek that was!) & Nicholas the defensive change-options from the bench. Ilkay & Bernardo the ones to-possibly come on and give David & Kevin some rest, if the situation allows, and Sergio is probably gonna be there in case needed at some stage.

Notable absences: Benjamin Mendy (continues rehab following injury / surgery), Vincent Kompany (rested / protected), Phil Foden (not selected), Gabriel Jesus (after training alone for a couple of weeks, he is back training with the squad but is likely to-still-be 2 weeks away from a return) & Leroy Sane (over his injury but unlikely to be given another go after completing a rusty-looking 37 minutes the other day) & Yaya Toure (possibly unavailable due to illness).

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Well, I do think the [predicted] new-look defence could be a small cause for a raised eyebrow, especially as the left flank in general looks relatively inexperienced AND the fact that both Laporte & Stones have never played a match together.

I’d also hate for Fernandinho to ‘pick up a knock’ or tire himself out before our final just 6 days later but…who else do we have / risk as a defensive midfielder, if we’re going to play with one that is (perhaps another good reason to play 4-6-0 and give the Brazilian a break)?

But, otherwise, I’d be happy with that and it gives us enough experience & quality both in the 11 and on the bench to feel comfortable.

Result? I hope it’s a clean game and know nothing about the style of play of our hosts, these days.

They do sit 2^nd in League One; just one point behind the leaders and with a game in hand. They are also the second-highest scorers in their division and have the tightest defence by a reasonable distance over the top team and far beyond the rest. They are ‘tough cookies’ in their league, for sure, and have knocked out Premier League side AFC Bournemouth; thumping them 3-0 at home in the last round. However, they have lost their last 2 league games.

Unless Pep really does ‘go for it’ and pitches a stronger side than the one I have suggested, I can see this one being quite close. However, even with a side like the one I have gone with, I think we'll sneak this one and slide into the quarter finals, however long it might take us over the 90+. An away win.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: N/A

Result: N/A

Expected weather conditions during the game: Not particularly cold (at 7C) for mid-to-late February; not particularly windy (at around 7MPH) and not dreadfully wet, with just a chance of light showers forecasted. Playing conditions, weather-wise at least then, not an issue and fans should be fine with a warm, shower-proof coat and thin gloves.