Off-colour City limping badly through…

…a packed fixture list.

 

When you’re firing, the games can’t come quick enough for players and managers. When you’re completely out of sorts, as we are ‘big time’ at the moment, there’s a tendency to want to hide, lock the training ground doors and have a long look inside yourselves; regroup and attempt to re-emerge roaring back to form.

 

Sadly, for us, there are no hiding places as the games come thick & fast and we travel next to the exposed, South coast of Southampton for a live, televised game against a somewhat rejuvenated side under their new boss. 

 

With 4 days rest and time to reflect following our latest defeat – 3 losses in the last 4 and only 1 straight win the last 5 games in normal time – I can only hope our players and management team have got to the root cause of just what is wrong with us at the moment.

v Southampton

With a still-busy-time of it over the festive period, I won’t waffle on any longer and will, instead, get straight on to the pre-match posting.

St. Mary's Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from starting line-up in the last game which, for me blog-wise, was the League Cup game against Leicester City: 7/11).

Fluid 4-1-4-1 / 4-5-1 / 4-3-3:

____________________Aguero____________________

Sane____________________________________Mahrez

___________D. Silva_________De Bruyne___________

__________________Gundogan___________________

Zinchenko________________________________Walker

_____________Laporte________Stones_____________

____________________Ederson___________________

Subs: Muric, Danilo, Otamendi, Foden, B. Silva, Sterling, Jesus.

Steady Ed attempts, once again, to be a calming influence at the back.

I think we’re gonna see a start for Oleksandr for this one in the left-wing back position, with Kyle returning on the right and a continuing partnership of Aymeric & John in between those.

Not much choice to cover the deep-lying midfield role so Ilkay is likely to sit deeper than he would naturally. Ahead of him, are we gonna see ‘The A Team’? I’m guessing so and although Kevin might be a little ahead of David in the recovery status, both should be fit enough to put in a 65-minute+ shift. Either side of those I think Leroy will be asked to go again and Riyad to get the nod over Raheem for this fixture and after a very poor game in midweek.

Sergio to attempt to get his first, away Premier League goal in over 13 months - a statistic I was made aware of last Wednesday that blew my mind!

Aro is the back-up to Ederson; Danilo & Nicholas provide defensive replacement options. Phil, Bernardo, Raheem & Gabriel (if he too gets over a slight knock) are the more attacking options from ‘the 7’ which most Premier League clubs would love sitting on their bench, if not in their starting 11.

Notable absences:

-       Claudio Bravo – Injured long-term and possibly for the rest of the season.

-       Benjamin Mendy – Injured for around another 8 weeks.

-       Vincent Kompany – Not selected.

-       Fernandinho – Still not recovered from a niggly thigh injury.

-       Fabian Delph – Serving the first of a 3-match ban after being sent off late in the game at Leicester which, in my opinion, wasn’t a red even in this day ‘n’ age of getting booked for the slightest thing.

-       Brahim Diaz – Not selected and rumours surfacing again that he might be moving to Real Madrid as early as next week.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Well, I’ve touched on this in a recent piece about the fact that we’re sticking square pegs in round holes trying to cover the left-wing back slot; suggesting that we should, perhaps, stick 3 central defenders in there to fill out / help that area. Add into the mix that we’ve not got our midfield guardian, Fernandinho, in place too and the situation screams even louder for us to beware and possibly change something.

I’d definitely be tempted – I really like Laporte and, for the most part, Stones too. And Ederson I’m dead happy with! But there’s something not quite right with Walker at the moment; it’s just not Zinchenko’s favoured position and neither is Gundogan a natural defensive midfielder. So…I might be tempted to go with...

Fluid 3-6-1 / 5-4-1:

____________________Aguero____________________

____Sane____________________________Mahrez____

____________D. Silva________De Bruyne___________

Zinchenko________________________________Walker

__________Laporte____Stones____Otamendi_________

____________________Ederson_____________________

But it’s highly likely that Pep knows more than I do and I doubt he’d think about deploying 3 central defenders – effectively meaning we’d have 5 defenders on the pitch, albeit with 2 very attacking & overlapping wing-backs – even away in the Premier League.

Otherwise, I’m fine with that predicted selection.

Result? We've well & truly lost our mojo.

There’s not nearly as much intensity in our play, which is giving teams far too much time to recover, regroup and implement, with greater effect, their OWN attacking strategies.

Our passing radar seems off too, meaning we’re giving the ball away far too much and can’t, therefore, control games to the same effect as when we were swiping teams aside with relative ease & grace.

And our shot aim is off as well, increasing the risk of missed opportunities coming back to bite us, which is exactly what’s been happening recently.

There are other issues too, of course, with individual players seemingly fatigued and generally out of sorts; whilst having both [key] injured personnel and other important players trying to find their swagger again following time in the treatment room, all of which isn’t helping.

If we don’t find our 'zing' before tomorrow’s game then we could then be looking at losing 4 out of the last 5 games!

Surely not…and if we can resolve at least 2 of those concerns I’ve raised in this result-prediction summary, then we’ll give ourselves a good chance of turning it around.

However, I think we’re bound to look a little jittery at times tomorrow; possibly looking low on confidence at both ends of the pitch at times. I think we'll see a better performance from City than we have of late though…even if, at times, it might have some Blues clutching onto / half-hiding behind anything they can grab.

Originally having this down, as I did, as an away win at the start of the season; I was then, following our recent stumbles, going to change it to a hard-fought draw. It may well be a tough ‘n’ close game but I’m going for Pep and the boys to turn this bad run around with a narrow victory.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result…

Prediction: Win

Result: Win (and broke records by achieving 100 points with a late winner from Gabriel Jesus).

Expected weather conditions during the game: Well it might not be quite shorts, shades, buckets & spades on the South coast of England but it’ll be flippin’ mild as we approach the crossing from December into January! 12C, overcast with little breeze and no rain.

Addition:

Rumors are circulating this morning that Chelsea's Cesc Fabregas is itching for a move away from the London club and not only have we been "linked" with the 31-year old ex-Barcelona & Arsenal midfielder, one source at least suggests that we're already in talks about a possible loan, at least.

However, reasons for his apparent wish to move are that not only does he want more 'game time' but he is alleged to want greater involvement in an attacking role. So, that leaves me with two rather obvious questions:

1. Would he see more game time should he come to City? I would very much doubt it.

2. How would his-apparent desire to play as an attacking midfielder help us in our pursuit for assistance for Fernandinho? The answer is, it wouldn't.

'Pinch of salt' at the moment, I would suggest... 

What went wrong?

Well first of all, it might sound a little rich of me to try to answer that question following a game I was unable to watch and only heard small pieces of live commentary. In fact, any analysis of our unexpected home defeat is based on reports I’ve read, highlights and pundit comments I’ve watched / listened to and reports, last night, from fellow Blues who watch the whole 94 minutes.

 

But, of course, I’ve intently watched most of our games leading up to yesterday’s defeat and have noted one or two little concerns creeping into our game. 

 

And, finally before I comb through anything to do with Saturday’s defeat as well as issues in general, I think it would be disrespectful not to give Roy Hodgson and the Crystal Palace players huge credit for their victory. Even though they had little possession and few shots on target, at times they displayed some excellent, quick-passing attack work and defended very, very well indeed.

Some signs have been looming on the horizon.

 

I can’t exactly put my finger on when a little alarm bell was sounding in my head and I think part of that is the fact that if we did appear to have a wobble or two – whether that be in a particular game or over a week or so – our quality, resilient spirit and ability to find another gear from somewhere often pulled us through…and possibly helped to largely erase any ominous sense.

I suppose the best way of doing any such analysis is to run through some of our players & positions – as good-a-way as any.

 Ederson / the keeper situation.

Nothing wrong here really. Our No.1 is everything a ‘modern keeper’ - and a goalie under Pep - needs to be. Good with his feet, very good distributer of the ball and, as a bonus, is a brave, shot-stopper too. I would even go as far as to say that it is forgivable, all things considered, if the Brazilian does, as we’ve seen twice this season, have a moment of concentration loss; as the 10 in front of him enjoy so much possession for such long periods.

Ederson in action.

And although Aro has “only” been involved in the League Cup where he’s faced League 1’s Oxford United, a fairly-poor (at the time) Fulham side at home and a somewhat weakened Leicester City side; reports have been good and whenever asked to collect a ball, distribute it to a colleague or save a shot – indeed a penalty – he’s stepped up to the mark and done it well.

There might well be concerns from City fans about losing Ederson to injury and having to rely full time on Muric in the Premier & Champions League and, should that happen, questions will be asked I’m sure about who’ll then deputise comfortably for the 6’ 6” Kosovan. I certainly raised an eye brow and questioned the decision to sell Angus Gunn in the summer. Well we have been linked recently with 23-year old, USA stopper Zack Steffen, which suggests to me that, following the loss of Claudio Bravo, concerns about cover in this position isn’t confined to the stands & pubs.

Certainly not a major problem and not one that is contributing to any issues we might be currently experiencing.

In sharp contrast, however…the left-back position.

How many years have City fans been craving for a good left-back…and ‘good cover for' too? Just how many managers have we had during that questioning time is probably easier to answer, rather than running through the players who have, let’s be honest, largely just ‘filled a place on the pitch’ rather than emulate Pablo Zabaleta on the opposite flank of the defence.

Some fans reached fever pitch as the signing of Benjamin Mendy was announced whereas – and I don’t say this in hindsight – I gave a quiet, “Go on then big’n, show us what you can do”.

What could / can he do? He can attack with power & pace, he can whip in a good cross (sometimes a little too brisk), he’s got a bit of a shot on him and he certainly helps to press the oppo back even more; often leaving the 11 we face feeling overwhelmed at times and on their right. Oh…he can also tweet a HELL of a lot!

Silly Benny...

 What he can’t do, for the most part, is defend and so I have to ask the question, “Did we actually sign a left back / left-wing back in the summer or did we actually sign another left winger”? And, of course, it looks like we’ve signed a lame duck too. Can we say that it’s not his fault that he’s been hit with two, unrelated serious knee injuries? Well the second one, perhaps (unless it’s somehow caused by the way he’s compensating after the first one) but as for the first, major blow; I’m sorry to say that it was down to him and the silly, unnecessary challenge he made that lead to him spending time in Hospital and the rest of last season out.

Fabian Delph at left-wing back? I mostly like him and thought he covered so very well there last season. However, I do agree with those who say that when faced by REAL top-quality opposition it’s a little beyond him, despite his all-round abilities and battling qualities.

Oleksandr Zinchenko at left-wing back? Again, he’s competent; especially when you consider that he’s largely been an attacking, left-sided midfielder / winger in his [even] younger days. He largely gives 7/10 performances against ‘average-to-good teams’ but, even then, you can tell that defending is not his natural forte.

So, there we are – we have an expensive, injury prone attacking left-wing back who can’t really defend; an experienced, defensive midfielder who is being asked to cover there or a raw, attacking midfield / winger being asked to do likewise.

So, do we need a new left-back; a quality one with pace who can defend as well as Zabba did on the right? We sure do. Will that happen in January? Highly unlikely. Solution then? Well I’d stick with Fabian there unless he is needed to cover for Fernandinho, who I’d much rather have in the middle than John Stones, which I’ll come on to.

But whether it’s Fabian or Oleksandr on the left of our defence; if it’s against quality opposition then I think we should cut our cloth accordingly on those occasions and, perhaps, possibly stick 3 centre halves in there to fill-in that zone at little more and give the left-back spot some extra attention / cover.

Central defence.

Not a concern for me. I think it looks better with Laporte & Stones in there and that’s taking nothing away from Nicholas Otamendi. And, it looks like, Vincent Kompany might be being-kept safe for desperate emergency cover should we lose 2 of those steady 3. An addition next season, perhaps, but this isn’t an area which is causing us problems at the moment.

The Walker conundrum / right back.

This isn’t one I though I’d be highlighting for one moment and if anyone had suggested at the end of last season that I might, I would have thought that-they-had-been a recipient of a bump to the head.

Walker was excellent last season and, yes, here comes the comparison; I thought we’d found someone not far of the qualities of Pablo Zabaleta…a Yorkshire version of. And he started this season quite well too. A Very good right back with a decent player, in Danilo, as cover! No problems there, hey? Wrong.

Knackered or complacent?

I don’t know if it’s fatigue, following the 2018 World Cup, or whether it’s a lack of competition for his place - I suspect it’s a little of both. It was a long England campaign following a long, long 2017/18 season and he simply can’t be feeling at all threatened by Danilo; who seems to spend 50% of his time in the treatment room!

This isn’t the first time I’ve said this – the first time being in the summer and to a friend & BIG Blue – but why oh why oh why did we sell Pablo Maffeo; a player given to ‘Pablo senior’ at the time as a “nurturing project”…and one that appeared to be paying dividends following some promising-looking displays. Utterly baffling.

I’ve seen stock footage already of the 6 or more appearances for the team we sold him to, VfB Stuttgart, and he looks as comfortable & controlled as I remember him being in the sky blue of Manchester.

Is this an area that is negatively affecting us right now? I’d have to say, yes. Therefore, if we’re not going to get back to the Kyle Walker of last season and / or Danilo’s niggles don’t look to be settling down soon too, then I would suggest that this is an area we should be looking at almost as much as the left back / left-wing back position.

Defensive midfield.

Well…this is certainly an area I don’t think anyone would disagree that we need new blood / competition for.

When we first signed Fernandinho, firstly I knew nothing about him as he moved from Shakhtar to Manchester and, secondly, I thought we’d bought an average player who was very naïve and hot-headed at times. I wasn’t too impressed at all. But my word how he has grown and grown and matured still FURTHER under Guardiola; so much so that we miss him so very badly whenever he’s not available.

And it’s that unavailability that’s hurting us at times this season, as the near-34-year old’s legs and general recovery-fitness are taking longer to heal after games.

I wouldn’t blame – and it is annoying – someone asking the question why we don’t have a quality EDS player who has already been coached as a defensive midfielder; who could also have been working with the Brazilian in training and deputise for him from time to time.

However, that appears unlikely and whether it happens in January or the summer (most likely the latter), I’m sure we’ll see big money being spent in this area of the squad.

Frenkie De Jong - Who's looking at you, kid?

Pep has actually said twice, in recent weeks, that he will NOT be spending in January on any areas of the pitch. And even IF yesterday’s viewing of central defender John Stones failing to control that part of the pitch has changed his mind, transfer-plans-wise; his apparent number one target, Frenkie De Jong, has promised to remain at Ajax until the end of the season…and is apparently also a target for ‘big guns’ Barcelona, Bayern Munich & PSG.

A very good central defender - stay there please.

Unless it’s against lower league opposition and to give Fernandinho a break, I just wouldn’t use John Stones as a deep-lying midfielder – he might look comfortable in short spells but it’s just not for him in my opinion.

Personally, if Fernandinho needs to be left out, I’d go with readymade Fabian…although that then means putting [3^rd choice] Zinchenko at left-wing back (or Danilo, if ever fit, on his less-favoured left side). See the problem? Gundogan can do a half-decent job there too and at least it’s a midfield slot that he’s more used to than John is / appears to be.

Yep, this is also an area that’s causing us wobbles at the moment.

Attacking midfield / wing department?

Hufff…not an issue. Even when we had Kevin De Bruyne out for months followed by David Silva, we got on just fine. Ironically, however, now that Kevin is back / being eased back in, one player who really ‘stepped up’ and played really, really well in Kev's absence has since rapidly declined in his last 3 appearances – that player being Bernardo Silva. Other than that – and with David set to return soon – we’ve got a frightening array of attacking & creative talent in this area.

And that brings me onto our strike force.

Now I’ve always been an advocate of having a minimum of 3 quality strikers in the first team. Yes, one might get frustrated at times and it would be ideal to have one of those who can play deeper / wider in order to, on occasions, accommodate 2 at once.

But in a long, long season of 4 domestic competitions, which is often sandwiched in-between international finals (not to mention qualifying games & friendlies); having 3, top-notch strikers doesn’t sound, to me, like an over-indulgence for a team challenging on all fronts.

Having said all of THAT, I will admit to a certain degree that, in our case with such an attacking wealth of talent in the previous department, perhaps 2 would be considered enough.

Gabriel Jesus - A trier with tallent.

However, l believe that in recent games with Sergio out yet again (we lose him for weeks / months-a-season don’t forget) it’s highlighted once more that if you rely of the fortunes of just 1 striker, it can leave you ruing missed chances. That’s what we’re seeing a little of at the moment and that’s hurting us too.

 

So…was yesterday’s result – a game I will repeat we have to give our hosts some credit for – a product of…

-       Being fragile on the left of our defence?

-       Having a right-back who is going through a prolonged wobbly spell; who is possibly feeling fatigued and who rarely has anyone breathing down his neck, competition-wise?

-       Having a hole in front of the defence whenever Fernandinho is not available, as was the case yesterday?

-       Being thin on options in the striker department; failing to put the finishing touches on all that our talented players work hard to create?

-       Or was it, perhaps and as has been suggested, the fact that the decision was made to have a club Christmas party on Wednesday night; a little over 48 hours before a Premier League game where we were possibly going to have to close a short-term, 4-point gap on Liverpool?

-       Did the players & manager take Crystal Palace lightly especially after we went 1-0 up, which is something else that has been suggested by several Blues already?

-       Did Pep actually fail on this occasion – not selecting the right starting 11 and attempting to put square pegs in round holes?

Do you know what, although that’s a long summary list of possibilities, I’m going to suggest that it might be a smattering of all of those factors.

The quicker our players forget about the mince pies; the speedier the whole squad - including the coaching staff - dust themselves down and the faster the club gives itself a little shake and look in the mirror also with regards to what we MIGHT do transfer-wise in January, then the sooner we can get back on track and continue where we started the first quarter of the season, which is to get back to our devastating – and solid – best!

Don't Panic! Don't Panic!

There’s no need for massive changes nor should there be any panic for those City fans who are desperate for our club to achieve back-to-back Premier League titles. A 4-point gap with a team of our strength breathing down your neck in December is nothing and Klopp, more than most, will know that.

But I do think it’s time for the Management / Coaching team at Manchester City as well as the ‘decision makers’ at the club to have a little review, in one way or another, of those areas I’ve mentioned as we approach half time in the season.