Predictions v Brighton

I think last Tuesday, our third defeat on-the-trot, highlighted two of three issues that I have mentioned recently – we played quite well, particularly in the first half but, once again, we looked vulnerable at the back and STILL don’t convert chances created; with 20 shots but only 6 of those on target…including a missed penalty.

Moving on…

v Brighton & Hove Albion

American Express Community Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game which, for me blog-wise, was our game against AFC Bournemouth: 9/11).

A very fluid 4-1-4-1 / 4-5-1 / 4-3-3:

____________________Haaland____________________

 

 

Nunes___________________________________Savinho

_______________________________Foden___________

___________Silva________________________________

 

____________________Kovacic____________________

Gvardiol___________________________________Lewis

________Simpson-Pusey_________Akanji___________

 

 

____________________Ederson____________________

Subs: Carson, Ortega, Walker, Ake, McAtee, Gundogan, De Bruyne, O’Reilly, and Doku.

Ederson retains the gloves.

I’m going for a back-4 of Josko, Jahmai, Manuel and Rico.

Mateo has the ‘hot seat’ once again in that all important defensive midfield slot; possibly aided at times by the energetic and versatile Bernardo.

Although Silva will, of course, want to be involved in the attacks too; most of that is likely to be down to Matheus, Phil and Savinho; who all support Erling up front.

Scott and Stefan are two reserve keepers on the side, with the latter getting a call-up to the Germany squad and, therefore, could make his international debut. Kyle and Nathan make up just two defenders in ‘the 9’, with the latter being deemed as, “getting better” from his latest injury niggle. James, Ilkay, Kevin and Nico give us good midfielder replacement options from the bench, while Jeremy is a wide-man alternative.

Notable absences:

-       John Stones – Still out with a foot injury. Unknown return date.

-       Ruben Dias – Out until after the international break with, what is being classed as, a muscular issue. However, I’m sure I heard in the last couple of days that he has been called up for this latest round of internationals. Hopefully it’s just for assessment by their own staff and that he won’t be risked. Seems both a bit weird and harsh to me…

-       Rodri – Injured Anterior Cruciate Ligament and will be missing for the remainder of the season following surgery.

-       Jack Grealish – Although he has-apparently JUST, yesterday and for the first time, started to train outside of the gym and with his teammates following an unspecified injury, the situation hasn’t changed; in that he won’t be in contention for a return for us until after the international break. However and despite that, like Ruben he too has been selected by his international Manager to join his international colleagues.

-       Oscar Bobb – Out injured with a fractured leg that he received in training way back when. A likely return is deemed to be January / February.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Yep.

I mean, there’s a good argument to start Doku instead of Nunes for tactical reasons, with both having different qualities, and perhaps McAtee is being considered for a go at the Rodri role instead of Kovacic but…yeah.

Result?

It’s another difficult one, for sure. Our hosts have a mixed bag of results but have only been defeated twice in ten league games played. They sit in a respectable 8^th place with 17 goals scored and 14 conceded. Like us but more so; they appear to leak goals this season too.

I’m no footballing coach, of course, but I would suggest the instructions should be…

1.    Set up / prepare for counter attacks and defend better generally [than you have been doing].

2.    The wing-backs: Do your defending job first ‘n’ foremost - you no longer have Rodri to step back and help out our central defenders / snuffing out danger whenever you go venturing into midfield in support of the attack.

3.    Solidify the central midfield department for flip’s sake because similarly…we no longer have Rodri; the best defensive midfielder in the world!

4.    For flip’s sake, convert more of our many chances and…‘kill teams off’ when we’re in control!

As I say, that would be my unqualified assessment and advice to the players moving forward after three back-to-back defeats; as well as following a long series of same-ol’-same-ol’ performances.

Can I see us suffering four back-to-back defeats? Yeah, I honestly can away at Brighton. Can I see us working out the issues and getting the win? Yes, I can envisage that too and 🤞.

What am I going for? A draw.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result:

Prediction: Win

Result: Won

(Pre-match blog posting from that game).

Expected weather conditions during the game: The sun will be waving goodbye as the game kicks off (5:30pm GMT) and under the floodlights, it’ll feel a slightly chilly 10C. Not too bad at all for early-to-mid November plus it’s dry and there’s hardly a breeze to speak of. 🧣🧥🥧☕🍺

Solidarity

 

 

Comment on yesterday’s defeat plus…

…a small blog announcement.

Observations and thoughts…

Well, it’s taken until November to see our first league defeat; only our second defeat in fifteen games in all competitions but it’s two back-to-back losses as we face a run of very tough-looking fixtures in the months of November and December.

-       Sporting CP away

-       Brighton & Hove Albion away

-       Tottenham Hotspur at home

-       Feyenoord at home

-       Liverpool away

-       3^rd-place Nottingham Forest at home

-       Crystal Palace away

-       Juventus away

-       Manyoo at home

-       Aston Villa away

-       Everton at home

-       Leicester City away

Wow. I’d say with the exception of Feyenoord and Everton at home as well as Leicester City away, that’s a serious-looking list of very demanding games. Before anyone comments on me not highlighting Manyoo as well, derbies are what they are and by then, they’ll have a new manager…

Last Wednesday’s defeat in the League Cup at Spurs was expected by a lot of City fans, I’m sure, but ironically I thought we played really, really well that night.

However, although I was of course hoping for a win and, indeed, made a City win my prediction in yesterday’s blog posting; that defeat yesterday has been coming for a few weeks now in my opinion. Apart from burying the last two sides in the Champions League; generally speaking we’ve not looked good in the league since we edged past Brentford at home on 14^th September.  I do say that, however, by giving credit also to the likes of Brentford, Fulham, Wolves, Southampton and, indeed, Bournemouth for their performances against us.

Yes, we’ve got lots and lots of injuries at the moment; some of them are key personnel and even returning players are struggling to find full fitness and rhythm. That last part was all too evident yesterday but like Pep alluded to after the game; what’s he supposed to do when he’s got players who have been covering for absent colleagues who are totally exhausted? Risk injury to them too? At the risk of making non-City fans laugh, we’re in a tough moment right now.

But injuries aside, I think we’ve had – and sill have - issues all over the pitch.

·         Whether it’s down to individual errors / poor form or because we press so high up the pitch from the back without being alert / set up to deal with the many fast-breaking counter attacks we are faced with; we look so vulnerable at the back this season, don’t you think?

·         We look way softer and easier to get through in the middle of the park; of course largely due to Rodri’s absence.

·         Up front from attacking midfield onwards, we need to convert more of our chances. We’re just not killing sides / putting teams out of sight; some of our narrow victories – and there have been plenty of those – have almost ended up draws and, for that, we’ve had some luck and should-perhaps consider ourselves a little fortunate. I’ve already seen one fan comment online since yesterday’s disappointing performance and outcome saying that he thinks we’re in a false position in the league.

Want some more dour news in case you’ve not heard? Ruben Dias (muscular) and John Stones (foot) are both now out injured. Dias is out until after the international break but I’m not sure about Stones. 🤞

As long as they don’t join their respective international sides, this up and coming set of internationals could actually provide a good opportunity for a lot of our players to repair and refresh themselves. I’m crossing all that I can that many of ‘em don’t get selected if our club deems them as not fully fit / vulnerable to injury… 🤞

Ending on a positive, despite all of the injuries to key players and despite not exactly firing on all cylinders in a lot of games; it is only early November and false position or not, we are 2^nd in the table, 2 points off the leaders, Liverpool, with a 4-point cushion from 3^rd, ahead of this afternoon’s fixtures. We’re also 3^rd in a new-look Champions League table of 36.

Players will return, our squad will look healthier soon enough 🤞 and as long as others who have been playing many minutes so far this season don’t break down themselves; we will find our momentum and ‘fine tune’ those areas of the team and need fine tuning.

Blog announcement

They’ll be no pre-match blog posting ahead of our Champions League game on Tuesday 5^th November (8:00pm KO GMT).

Next up for me will be ahead of our away league fixture at Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday 9^th November, 5:30pm KO.

So many injuries and doubts v Bournemouth...

…and so little time for me; following a brief holiday plus an early Saturday morning appointment.

So…straight to it ASAP!

v AFC Bournemouth

Vitality Stadium

Predicted line-up, subs and outcome:

(Number correct from the starting line-up in the last game which, for me blog-wise, was our game against Southampton: 11/11).

A very fluid 4-1-4-1 / 4-5-1 / 4-3-3:

____________________Haaland____________________

 

 

Nunes_____________________________________Silva

_______________________________Foden___________

__________Gundogan____________________________

 

____________________Kovacic____________________

Gvardiol___________________________________Lewis

____________Ake_______________Stones___________

 

 

____________________Ederson____________________

Subs: Carson, Ortega, Dias, Simpson-Pusey, Wright, McAtee, O’Reilly and Savinho.

Ederson in goal.

I’m going for a back 4 of Josko, Nathan, John and Rico.

Mateo just ahead of those, with the in-form Matheus, not-so-in-form Ilkay, Phil and Bernardo ahead of the Croatian.

A rested [in midweek] Erling heads the lot.

8 from a possible 9 on the bench, if I’m correct that is, includes two keepers in the form of Scott and Stefan, with Ruben and Jahmai being our only two defenders on the side. Jacob, James and Nico are three very young midfield replacements hoping to get some minutes, while Savinho, who took a heavy knock in midweek, might be okay to complete the eight as our only wing replacement option.

Our manager was unsure about who would be fit to take part in today’s game when he conducted his pre-match press conference yesterday so there’s certainly more guesswork than usual there, I’m afraid.

What he has told us is that in addition to the players who are definitely out - plus Savinho who is most certainly feeling sore but could be involved in the matchday squad - is that Ruben Dias has also been playing through some pain in recent weeks. That does go some way to explaining the odd below-par performance from the Portuguese international and if he is struggling a little then he may start on the bench this afternoon; although he did start last Wednesday’s game and was withdrawn at half time, so… 🤷‍♂️

Notable absences:

-       Kyle Walker – Still out with a knee injury and still an unknown return date.

-       Manuel Akanji – Out with a muscular injury of some kind. Unknown return date.

-       Rodri – Injured Anterior Cruciate Ligament and will be missing for the remainder of the season following surgery.

-       Kevin De Bruyne – Continues to train to some degree as he recovers, very slowly and very steadily, from a groin / hip / pelvic issue. Unknown return date but we were told yesterday that there has been some improvement in recent days; allowing the Belgium international to make a small step up in his training / recovery process.

-       Jack Grealish – Injured. The nature of the injury remains unclear and we are told that he won’t be available until after the next international break.

-       Jeremy Doku – Similar to Jack, the nature of Jeremy’s medical issue has also not been made clear but he too won’t be available until after the international break.

-       Oscar Bobb – Out injured with a fractured leg that he received in training way back when. A likely return is January / February.

Do I agree with Pep’s (predicted) line-up?

Yep…but with a nod towards a possible good argument for James McAtee to start instead of Ilkay Gundogan.

Result?

Our hosts have been receiving a lot of praise from various pundits every time I’ve tuned in to sports radio chatter in the last week or so and when I look at the table, I’m left wondering if, like Wolves, their performance haven’t always generated the right result. I say that because they find themselves slap-bang in the middle of the table (11^th) for good reason – they’ve Played 9, Won 3, Drawn 3, lost 3; scored 11 and conceded 11 also.

Having not really watched them this season other than the odd highlight, all I can deem from that is they would appear to be a very organised and tight outfit - a good number of teams both above and below them have let in anywhere between 16 and 25 goals in those same 9 matches, so I suppose 11 from 9 played is quite impressive.

Injuries, doubts and creaking limbs aside; I still look at that predicted starting 11 that’s had almost 3 days recovery time and believe it’s enough to come away with all-3 points.

I think a key area – and one that The Cherries might try to exploit – is the Kovacic / Gundogan zone in front of the defence. If we get that wrong / aren’t completely ‘on it’ then we are likely to concede and put ourselves under pressure to hurt that seemingly tight defence of theirs.

One pundit, just yesterday, had us down for a 1-4 win and although I hoped he was correct, I thought to myself…have you even watched us recently? Are you just rolling a dice to predict the score?

Whether we do score one, two OR four I do believe that we will score more than them. I personally believe it’ll be a tight affair but it’s a welcome 3 points to us in our penultimate league game before the third international break of this short season so far. City to win.

Last season’s, corresponding pre-match prediction and result:

Prediction: Win

Result: Won

(Pre-match blog posting from that game).

Expected weather conditions during the game: Pretty breezy but at 14C in early November, that’s not too bad at all; especially as it’s gonna be dry for the game too. ☁⚽🥧🧥

Solidarity